Debate and expectation about the drop in the dollar

The possibility that dollar Officer in Argentina falls to $ 1,000 has generated an intense debate in the economic and political sphere. According to the projections of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), this reduction in the price of the American currency is attributed to a combination of solid macroeconomic factors, such as the strengthening of international reserves, the fiscal surplus and the elimination of monetary emission.

The current context is part of the new flotation regime administered with exchange bands, implemented by the government of Javier Milei. This scheme establishes that the dollar Officer will move inside a strip that goes from $ 1,000 to $ 1,400, with 1% monthly adjustments at both ends.

When the price approaches the band’s floor, the BCRA will intervene buying dollars to accumulate reservations, while, if it approaches the ceiling, it will sell currencies to contain inflationary pressures.

Federico Furiase, director of the BCRA, stressed that the stability of the dollar, which recently closed about $ 1,125, is due to “solid macropundaments.” Among the key factors mentioned by Furiase are the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which increased free availability liquid reserves, and the sanitation of the Balance of the Central Bank.

Debate and expectation about the drop in the dollar

In addition, the fiscal surplus has allowed to remove pesos of circulation, freezing the monetary base and reducing the pressure on prices. The impact of these policies is also reflected in the entry of foreign capital to the local market and in the liquidation of foreign exchange of the agro -export sector before the increase in withholdings planned for June.

These measures have contributed to exchange stability and have reinforced government credibility in the management of the economy. For his part, President Javier Milei has defended this scheme as a tool to reduce inflation and accumulate additional reserves.

Debate and expectation about the drop in the dollar

Floor

Javier Milei has pointed out that, if the dollar Reach the band’s floor, the BCRA could buy up to $ 4,000 million in currencies. However, this strategy is not exempt from risks, since some economists warn that a dollar too low could discourage exports and encourage imports, affecting commercial balance.

The possibility that the official dollar falls to $ 1,000 represents a challenge and an opportunity for the Argentine economy. While the Government seeks to consolidate exchange stability and reduce inflation, the coming months will be key to evaluating the impact of these market policies and the daily life of Argentines.

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