Brasilia – At the end of this year, Brazil will preside in Belém the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP30). It is an important responsibility. While the world commemorates the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, there is a growing sense of urgency in relation to global warming, which has gone from being a future threat to a present emergency. If current trends are maintained, the world will not comply with the global warming limit provided by the Paris Agreement (1.5 ° C with respect to pre -industrial levels), and the celebration of the next COP in Belém will highlight not only the pressure on the Amazon (one of the most beautiful regions in the world), but also the closeness of a climate inflection point.
Despite the clear warnings of scientists that we are dangerously close to overcoming the limits of the planet, emission records continue to be beating. In 2023, the world generated 57.1 billion tons of greenhouse gases, so the superficial concentration of carbon dioxide reached 420 parts per million. The last time there was that concentration on Earth was fourteen million years ago.
The first decade of the Paris Agreement helped the world to twist the course with respect to the inertial trajectory, which led us to an increase of between 4 and 5 ° C at the end of this century. In the current situation, if all countries meet their climatic objectives by 2030, the world average temperature is expected to increase 2.6 ° C. Our mission in the next COP30 is to create a road map of the next decade to accelerate the implementation of the necessary measures and reinforce the aspiration to fulfill the 1.5 ° C goal.
Unfortunately, emissions and temperatures continue to grow since 2015, and the geopolitical panorama has become more unstable and fragmented, with wars in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, in addition to a marked deterioration of relations between the United States and China. International forums have become fields of political confrontation where little attention is paid to the topic.
This change was evident in COP29 (nicknamed “The Cop of Finance”), which took place in Baku (Azerbaijan). Some governments of key developed countries adopted positions at the service of their immediate national interests, with neglect to global consequences. They also waited until the penultimate day of the summit to present their proposals for financial commitments, which delayed the debate on the resources that developing countries need to carry out the green transition. It is a counterproductive strategy, since global warming does not respect borders. Not creating the necessary conditions so that all countries transit to decarbonized growth paths will harm all parties.
In the end, the delegates left Baku with an agreement on the rules for carbon emission markets and the commitment of the rich countries to contribute to developing countries 300,000 million dollars annually in climate financing. It was an important, but small step at a time when great advances are needed. However, this result, which demonstrates that multilateralism is still possible, feel the foundations for a more ambitious action in Belém.
There are great hope that COP30 is a turning point in adaptation and mitigation efforts against climate change. In the COP28 a world balance was completed, and with the rules referring to the Paris Agreement, which were completed in COP29, the main task in Belém will be to accelerate the implementation of the agreements. Our goal in COP30 is to convert promises into actions.
But, for this, it is necessary that before the COP30 the countries present certain contributions nationwide (NDC) ambitious and detailed. With the presentation in the COP29 of updated NDC, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates have put the bar very high. Now the other countries have to live up to the challenge. At the Summit of the G20 last year, the Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, urged the countries of the group to advance carbon neutrality goals, from 2050 to 2040 or 2045, and the UN Secretary General, António Guterres promoted the implementation of the new objectives set in response to the world balance.
Meanwhile, we ask the emerging economies of the presentation of NDC that covers all sectors, greenhouse gases and include absolute goals of emissions reduction, compatible with the objective of 1.5 ° C. In addition, developing countries should present NDC that compatible the development objectives with an important reduction of emissions and continue to carry their economies by a decarbonized trajectory.
We hope that all countries will arrive at Belém willing to discuss how to promote the implementation of promises formulated within the framework of the world balance. The process must include agreements and measures aimed at tripling energy generation capacity from renewable sources, double energy efficiency measures, accelerate the abandonment of fossil fuels, end deforestation and increase reforestation. Ultimately, our role in COP30 is to reorient world efforts towards the creation of international conditions that facilitate and accelerate national initiatives. The objective must be to help countries quickly and just achieve the agreed goals.
In order for developing countries to exceed the obstacles that prevent them from following a discarded development path (specifically, unsustainable debt loads and high costs of indebtedness), international financial architecture must support climatic objectives. To that end, during its presidency of the G20 last year, Brazil created the G20 working group for world mobilization against climate change. In Belém, we must establish a credible strategy to mobilize 1.3 billion dollars in the direction of developing countries and create a plan that allows to align financial flows (public and private, national and international) with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Throughout the year, governments and multilateral institutions will have many occasions to promote negotiations on these issues, including spring and autumn meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and the International Conference on Financing for Development, which, which It will take place in June.
In view of the increase in frequency and severity of extreme meteorological phenomena, adaptation measures have become priority, especially in vulnerable communities. It is necessary that for 2025 countries finish defining their national adaptation plans, with indication of private and public investment sources necessary to specify them. And in COP30, delegates must adopt global adaptation indicators to create a common language in which to discuss the impact of climate change worldwide.
But the emphasis on adaptation does not imply reducing mitigation efforts. In many developing countries, mitigation and adaptation occur simultaneously as part of the development. In today’s world, the construction of new homes, cities, energy sources, factories and infrastructure must have as central objectives from the first moment to minimize emissions and increase resilience to the maximum.
As host of the COP30, Brazil has committed to preach with the example through decisive actions inside and outside its borders. But no country can only restore the necessary confidence for the success of the summit. All countries must go to Belém committed to defining and implementing ambitious national objectives and creating international conditions to accelerate climatic actions that do not leave anyone behind. Only then can we make the COP30 the climate inflection point that the world needs.
The author
Ana Toni, National Secretary for Climate Change in the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change of Brazil, is the executive director of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP30) of 2025.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025 www.project-syndes.org
