Miami, United States. – Asteroid 2024 YR4 has become the celestial object with the greatest probability of impact against the Land Since you have records. According to recent NASA datathe risk of collision has increased to 3.1%, exceeding the 2.7% that Apofis reached in 2004. The European Space Agency (ESA) has also adjusted its upward calculations, placing the possibility in 2.8%. The impact could occur on December 22, 2032.
The asteroid monitoring intensified in early February, when the initial risk was 1.2%. The uncertainty about its trajectory has decreased by 50%, and currently covers a corridor of approximately one million kilometers wide, with the earth near the center. “The possibility of impact will continue to rise in the next two weeks,” warned to The country Juan Luis CanoCoordinator of the ESA Planetary Defense Office.
To date, the analysis of 2024 YR4 is based on about 400 observations made since December 2024. However, the lack of adequate terrestrial telescopes to follow its trajectory generates uncertainty. The greatest hope falls to the James Webb space telescope, which in March will make new measurements to specify the size of the asteroid, currently estimated between 40 and 90 meters in diameter. “With this telescope we hope to make two key measures,” said to The country Javier Licandro, of the Institute of Astrophysics of the Canary Islands. The Webb will provide in May the last location of the asteroid before the sight of astronomers disappears.
ESA calculates 90% chances of ruling out an impact before May. If this does not happen, We would have to wait until 2028 To determine with certainty if the 2024 YR4 will collide in 2032. On the Turin scale, which measures the impact risk of objects close to the Earth, the asteroid currently has a threat level of three, although it could jump directly to level eight if The impact trajectory is confirmed.
Although 2024 YR4 does not represent a global danger, its impact could devastate an entire city depending on its composition and angle of entry into the atmosphere. Its current trajectory indicates that the potential impact zone covers from Venezuela to India, through Atlantic and Africa.
Given this scenario, experts suggest the preparation of a mission of diversion similar to that of NASA’s dart probe, which in 2022 managed to modify the path of the asteroid dimorphs. “If the clash cannot be ruled out before May, a space mission for 2028 would have to be designed and ready,” Licandro said.
The threat of 2024 YR4 is being monitored by the international asteroid alert network and the Space Missions Advisory Group (SMPAG), both linked to the United Nations. If the impact probability does not decrease, the SMPAG will meet in May to define a mitigation strategy.
