Before the constant threat of the president of the United States, Donald Trump to impose import tariffs From Mexico and Canada, volatility and uncertainty in global financial markets has been a constant, so that investors already take their precautions.
Specialists agree that what could be A new wave of negotiations Tariff, past experiences can provide a context and a useful perspective.
Kevin Khang, international economist of Vanguard, Consider that when faced with a high level of uncertainty as the current one, it may be useful to look at the past to understand what could develop on this occasion.
“In the case of tariffs, two reference points of economic history useful, including one that happened recently and another that dates back to almost a century ago. From the recent past: The tariff increases of 2018-2019. The initial proposals at the end of 2017 and early 2018 had a broad scope and were aimed at many commercial partners. During the following year and a half, we witnessed many changes (exemptions, intensifications and de -scrolls) as the policy was taking shape. Ultimately, these tariff
“From the distant past: the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff law. This broad law raised effective tariffs on imported goods to about 20 percent. The reprisals of many commercial partners followed quickly, probably worsening the great depression that was already underway. Although the law was finally repealed in 1934, until today he continues to inform how a severely adverse economic result can result from failed commercial negotiations. ”
For long -term investors, this means Understand potential volatility which could arise as the markets assimilate the impact of a very fluid narrative on the future of the panorama of international trade.
Conclusions
Based on the above, the specialist advances three key conclusions for investors:
1. It can be useful rCreate some of the recent volatility episodes (for example, in August 2024 and in several moments for 2022). Doing so can help maintain both a long -term perspective and a discipline in adherence to its strategic asset allocation.
2. One Large diversificationbetween and within the asset classes, it will be an important ingredient to cope with the possible volatility.
“For avant -garde, the economic and market perspective for 2025 remains the same: we continue in a It was solid monetary policy (which makes bonds a good investment option) and the sharing market continues to be a strip and loosen between US actions, with an impressive impulse in profits, and international actions, which are more attractively valued.
3. For those who invest with active managers, the superior performance in this type of environment full of news about policies may require a good judgment to discern noise signs and a ability to execute tactically opportunities that could be short duration.
“In the long term, possible changes in the global commercial ecosystem could create both disturbances and opportunities. For example, supply chains have already evolved since the 2018-2019 tariffs, and China now represents a much lower market share for the American imports that before 2018. These changes, although disruptive, can offer orPortunities for new positioned companies to take advantage of them and for cunning active investors that can identify these companies from the beginning.
