While the national economy remains afloat and the country remains an attractive destination for investors, 2024 will go down in history as a year in which important opportunities were allowed to reach a better growth to the observed and in which the fiscal management was as a pending subject for the economic authorities.
If any, one of the fronts that generated the most criticism of the National Government, especially the Ministry of Finance, was the budget execution, which according to a recent report by the Fiscal Observatory of the Javeriana University, was left with the lowest progress levels In 25 years and left a budget lag of more than $ 60 billion, which will press the box during the current validity.
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Although the team led by Diego Guevara in the Minhacienda presented Calculations in which the budget execution exceeded 90%, based on the commitments, the analysis of the Javeriana, by Mauricio Salazar, director of the Observatory, adds to those who correct this data and makes it clear that it was just 83% , taking as reference the obligations, which is what the academy suggests.
“In parallel, without counting debt, the figure was 81.9%, the lowest figure in the last 25 years and 7.5 percentage points below the historical average. This low performance is accentuated in the investment, where the execution reached only 57%, 20 percentage points less than the historical average, this being the worst result since 2002, ”said Salazar.
PGN 2024 Report – JAVERIANA UNIVERSIDAD
Courtesy – API
Better and worse
The Fiscal Observatory was given the task of discriminating the budget execution by entities and found that among the sectors with the highest execution education (96.4%), health and social protection (94%), prosecution (93%) and the Integral system of truth, justice, repair and No repetition (90.1%). All this, as they said, under the calculation of appropriation less obligations.
“The low performance in sectors such as Presidency (27.7%), sport (36%), agriculture and rural development (38.6%), transport (48.1%) and environment and sustainable development (54.7% ) ”, Said Mauricio Salazar, who said that the budget cut greatly influenced these adjustments and loss of dynamics in the execution of public spending.
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The analysis also reviewed the balance of the investment, line of the economy that for them was the most sacrificed in 2024, taking into account that of the $ 90.6 billion that appropriated for this task, 96.5% committed themselves, but the obligations reached only 57% and payments They did not exceed 55.7%.
“The communication of contracts, payments and other commitments with multiple entities of the State is generating financial difficulties. This year, in addition, the burden of a debt inherited from the past is added, which, far from being a positive debt, represents an additional pressure on the Government Box, which has expressed its intention to close the year with a lower budget lag and We must monitor, ”said Salazar.
PGN 2024 Report – JAVERIANA UNIVERSIDAD
Courtesy – API
Unfulfilled promises
Revised the different data left by the budget execution of last year, in the Fiscal Observatory of the Javeriana University they caught the attention for the effects that this problem can bring to the national economy, warning that It translates into unfulfilled promises and expectations of citizenship that do not materialize.
To better support their point they recalled that although from 2023 a budget of $ 502 billion was projected, only $ 394 billion were executed, leaving commitments without fulfilling for approximately $ 50 billion, although they recognize that this gap responds largely to the fall in oil income and Minera, evidencing a little sustainable fiscal agency and a financial management that generates uncertainty.
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“The government’s budget lag reached $ 63.4 billionandsalmost double the registered the previous year. The execution of the 2023 lag was 75.1%, a significant fall compared to the levels greater than 97% in previous years. This behavior reflects a lack of efficiency in public spending management, ”they said.
On the other hand, they point out that although the low budget execution helped fulfill the fiscal rule last year, reducing total spending, tax revenues at that time were lower than expected and due to this, despite the fact that with the strategy of Box control advanced by the Government was recorded a loss of appropriation of $ 18.7 billion, the risk of compliance with fiscal goals is still in force.
PGN 2024 Report – JAVERIANA UNIVERSIDAD
Courtesy – API
“We would like to attract attention to the fact that, although the figures presented reflect a low level of execution both by type of expense and sectors, it is key to leave on the table that, when comparing the budget execution with the initially approved budget, the government’s performance It is even worse and specifically, the investment experienced the greatest relative fall, going from $ 99.9 billion initially budgeted to an execution of $ 51.6 billion, ”they said.
Among the errors to correct, Mauricio Salazar stressed that this practice reveals an optimistic planning pattern that does not take into account the volatility of financing sources, generating delays in key projects and weakening the state’s ability to fulfill its commitments.
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“This lag between the initial budget and executed of such magnitudes It is unfulfilled promises of the national government with its citizens, less offer of public goods and services, as well as less social programs. The inconsistencies in the programming of expenses always end up punishing public investment, with negative economic and social consequences, therefore, we call attention to adjust the budget management to the fiscal reality of the country, ”he said.
Thus, they closed suggesting that the solution lies in a more realistic budget planning and in the strengthening of control and transparency mechanisms, for which it is essential to design a budget based on effective income and not on uncertain projections, prioritizing essential spending before to assume new commitments.
“In addition, reviewing the tax structure and diversifying the sources of financing would reduce the dependence of the mining-energy sector and guarantee greater fiscal stability, thus avoiding the budget lags that Year after year they affect compliance with government promises, ”they concluded.
