The Secretariat of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance (SPE) presented, on Thursday (13), projection of growth of the country’s Bruno Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025. Economic activity should be up 2.3%. The previous estimate in November was a growth of 2.5% of GDP.
According to the ministry, the reduction of GDP projection to 2025 is mainly based on interest rates, the slowdown of economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the external conjunctural scenario.
“We have reduced this projection, in part, weighing what we are seeing in monetary policy. And in part, because we are seeing a more pronounced slowdown of the activity now in the fourth quarter of 2024. So, in the 2.3% scenario, these two elements are incorporated, highlighted Macroeconomic Policy, Raquel Nadal.
It pointed out, however, that the ministry included in this projection the improvement in agricultural sector results due to the good prospects for the 2025 crop.
Deceleration
By productive sector, SPE expects a slowdown in industry and services, partially compensated for the acceleration of agricultural production.
For industry, growth forecast by 2025 was reviewed from 2.5% to 2.2% due to the deceleration projected for the transformation industry and for construction, despite the recovery of the extractive industry, especially depending on the entry in operation of new oil platforms.
For services, the rate of expansion projected for 2025 by the Secretariat fell from 2.1% to 1.9%, mainly as a reflection of the deceleration in the creation of new jobs and the reduction in the pace of credit concessions according to the high level of interest.
For agricultural activity, growth projection was maintained by 6%, taking into account crop prognosis, preliminary cattle slaughter data to the fourth quarter of 2024 and an improvement in the climate situation.
Trump
For the Secretary of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance, Guilherme Mello, is still early to project the impacts of trade policy implemented by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, on the Brazilian growth of 2025.
“It is too early to incorporate this theme into any scenario. Of course you can build alternative and possible scenarios, but we still have to understand how this will happen, in what deadline, who will be more affected, who will not be, still takes time to be more clear about this scenario. So today it is very difficult to point out possible impacts, ”he said.
According to Mello, so far it is possible to point out only sectoral but not macroeconomic impacts.
“If necessary, if we see that there is a need to incorporate something into the macro scenario, we will incorporate the moment we have this conviction,” he said.
