During Trump’s first mandate, expectations were not positive either. In January 2017, only 3% saw the panorama as a favorable to invest in Mexico, while Trump promoted his agenda to end the NAFTA.
Another complicated moment was during the pandemic, when in several months of 2020, the answers indicated that 0% considered that it was a good time to invest.
The Baker McKenzie firm points out that companies are increasingly resorting to mergers and acquisitions as a way to reduce their exposure to the Mexican market, without abandoning it completely. This trend is more noticeable in sectors sensitive to changes in commercial policy, such as automotive.
In addition, Baker McKenzie emphasizes that it will be key to see how political and commercial uncertainty impacts the development of nearshoring in Mexico, especially with the threat of tariffs to automotive and agricultural products.
Given this scenario, many multinationals, especially those of smaller, are abandoning China and Mexico to move to other countries such as the United States, India, Malaysia, Japan and Vietnam.
Fitch Ratings also warns that Trump’s tariffs will continue to affect investments until 2026, even if negotiations before the March deadline manage to avoid the generalized rate of 25%. The agency anticipates that tensions in bilateral relations could continue to affect the investment up to at least mid-2026, when the T-MEC is reviewed.
A weak economy
UBS points out that the threat of tariffs comes at a difficult time, when the Mexican economy already shows slowdown signs. The growth of 2024 did not reach expectations, and 2025 paints as another complicated year.
For the investment bank, the SHINBAUM administration has three major short -term challenges: an economy that loses rhythm, limited public finances and the pressure for the unpredictability of Trump’s commercial policies.
Although the 25% tariff was postponed after intense negotiations, the threat remains present. The uncertainty of commercial policy could be extended, so Mexico must prepare for a stage of economic and geopolitical instability. According to the bank, although solving these problems will take time, it is crucial to maintain economic stability and investor’s confidence.
Nearshoring is still alive
Although uncertainty makes many investors think twice before committing, BBVA considers that Nearshoring in Mexico remains a real opportunity and could even strengthen. Despite the threat of tariffs, commercial conditions continue to favor the country. Producing in Mexico and exporting to the United States is still more profitable than doing so from other places, especially from China, where tariffs could be 25% or even more.
In addition, the Mexican government, under the new administration, is being more receptive to private investment. For example, the Ministry of Energy has indicated that, once the CFE reaches 54% market share, it will be easier to authorize private investments, especially in sustainable energy.
The Mexico Plan also includes tax incentives for foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in human capital in all economic sectors. However, the commercial policy “America First” will still evaluate whether any country subsidizes its exports in a way that affects trade.
