Recently, the nation’s income and expenses balance was known for 2024 and it was determined that this year will be remembered in history for having the third highest fiscal deficit in history (6.8% of GDP), being exceeded only by 7.8% reached in 2020 and 7% in 2021; two years that were marked by a strong economic crisis that derived from pandemia.
Although the Ministry of Finance obtained the endorsement of the confis to make moves in the accounts and thus adjust the data to say that it did comply with the fiscal rule, its explanations did not convince the market, which, leaving behind the mistakes of the past, They ask to correct the course as soon as possible not to generate a crisis in sunset times.
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For former Minister of Finance and Rector of the EIA University, José Manuel Restrepo, with what was observed in the balance delivered by Minister Diego Guevara, it is worrying that the advances obtained in fiscal sanitation during the last three years were lost, although multiple alerts were thrown at the time, which were not heard .
“Tax income is not fulfilled and worse still fall with respect to 2024 in more than $ 18 billion. The above derived from low growth, cheerful accounts for income that were not going to be fulfilled and taxes that were unconstitutional, ”said Restrepo Abondano, who accused the government of being not very technical.
According to Restrepo, events like this, only deteriorate fiscal stability and put the country’s credibility at risk before investors, since he does not believe that risk agencies endorse the arguments he presented in The update of the Financial Plan, which was characterized by a bad design of income and estimates.
It is estimated that the gross debt will close the year by 62.7% of GDP, and a tax collection of $ 183 billion for December will be reached.
During the delivery of this balance, the Ministry of Finance also presented the new income estimates for the current validity, according to which tax revenues will leave $ 299.8 billion to the country, which in more than 90% will be obtained through the DIAN, after removing the failed Financing Law.
Luis Eduardo Llinás, director of the DIAN, justified this projection In the changes that the tax authority has been suffering, with the modernization and expansion of the personnel plant, the fight against evasion and work jointly with the private sector; that will allow them to have a better control of taxpayers.
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“While no one has a glass ball to accurately predict the results, the assumptions on which this plan is structured are structured in three fundamental pillars: normalization, control and strengthening of electronic billing,” said Llinás.
This official added that “these three components, together with other actions that are already ongoing or that will be reinforced, will allow us to approach the goal established in the Financial Plan, although with an adjusted margin. Without a doubt, it is an ambitious objective, but we trust that, with the team of servers we have and strengthening the use of new technologies, data analysis and Applied financial intelligence, we can guarantee compliance. ”
Luis Eduardo Llinás Chica, general director in charge of the DIAN.
Courtesy – API
Overestimations in sight
Currently, there are at least two reports that warn that national taxes and customs management calculations were overestimated in at least $ 20 billion and recommend reviewing the relationship ratio and expenses for this year, since the Fiscal risks are maintained.
The first to know is that of the Autonomous Committee of Fiscal Rule, according to which, the DIAN management income will be lower in $ 22.6 billion to those included in the General Budget of the Nation 2025, a situation that would be aggravated by the non -approval of the Financing Law that reduced the expectation of collection in collection in $ 12 billion compared to the budget that will be decreed.
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“The CARF estimates that a fiscal adjustment of $ 52 billion (2.9 percentage points of GDP) is required to comply with the fiscal rule with respect to the PGN 2025. This year’s final fiscal indicators will impact the situation of 2025. The gap between the planned collection and the tax income target of 2024, which was used to schedule PGN 2025, translates into a lower income base with respect to planned, ”they said.
While the Ministry of Finance has already ordered the postponement of $ 12 billion To comply with the rule in 2025, analysts suggests that this is not enough, especially when a tax burden is dragged since last year as a result of the budget lag.
Economic recession
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The second report is from Bogotá Bank, whose economic research team also sees the glass half full and says that although the challenges for the tax collection in 2025 are still high, a better economic dynamic in 2025 would favor its recovery, where the key will be Corporate income.
Thus, they warn that the missing collection would not be as broad as the fiscal rule committee anticipates, but rather somewhat close to $ 30 billion, but they make it clear that “although the news has a positive bias, the missing would be lower than the alerted, the reality is that, if the cases of income and expenses will not be adjusted The same magnitude, the sustainability of public finances would continue to be compromised. ”
Specifically, they point out that, according to the national budget, tax revenues would be $ 315.5 billion, of which they estimate that only $ 279 billion would be given; generating a gap of $ 36.5 billion. They also explain that “$ 30 billion would be explained by an optimistic expectation of the collection of economic activity and the non -compliance with the DIAN efficiency goal.”
Finally, Luis Fernando Mejía, Executive Director of FedesarrolloHe argued that if the government does not cut $ 28 additional billion in 2025, the fiscal rule will breach again and sentenced that although the markets already anticipated a complicated fiscal scenario, their patience has a limit.
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“The fiscal problem is very serious, we must take measures to reverse what is happening, these breaches of the fiscal rule, the systematic cuts that must be done to be able to finance the budget and get the country to have fiscal deficit figures again reasonable and that can give tranquility to markets and local and international investors, ”he said.
In this way, the calls to the national government remain mostly to adjust the belt and understand that the efficiency of the DIAN is at this time is a concept that can play against it, as it has already happened, taking into account that His modernization process has not begun and the expansion of his staff does not advance.
