Tomorrow the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) will release the inflation data for February, and the market expects prices to continue rising. On average, analysts consider that the variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could reach 7.64%.
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This was the average value indicated by analysts in the Citi survey, which brought together 27 of the main market players for February. At least they expect it to be 7.2%, and as maximum at 8.02%. For the monthly data, analysts expect an average inflation of 1.29%.
Likewise, the Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey showed a 7.35% expectation.While the survey carried out by the Banco de la República to 42 entities for the monthly data left a projection of 1.23% on average for the variation of prices in February.
Some projections are somewhat more optimistic, such as that of the director of economic research at Banco de Bogotá, Camilo Pérez, who indicated that by February the entity expects a variation of 1.19%, “mainly driven by the increase in food prices, for which a monthly variation of 2% is projected. However, to the extent that there is high uncertainty, the total result is biased upwards”. According to Pérez, annual inflation could “jump” to 7.5%.
With a monthly inflation projection of 1.27%, leaving annual inflation close to 7.6%, Scotiabank Colpatria ranks somewhat above Banco de Bogotá.
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Segrio Olarte, the bank’s chief economist, also reiterated that among the sectors that are most causing the rise in inflation is foodsbut also mentioned that “generally in the month of February education is readjusted and this year, in which attendance is already normalized, education inflation is expected to be adjusted significantly”, and that impacts from some regulated sectors such as energy and gas.
From the broker Casa de Bolsa, its director of analysis and strategy, Juan David Ballén, mentioned that in February inflation could be at 1.39%, with which inflation in annual terms could increase to 7.74%.
“Februarys are characterized by increases in tuition, but again we will see food boosted, and also transportationBallen said.
A little above this estimate is BBVA, with a monthly forecast at 1.48% and 7.85% per year. “The main impacts are expected again in the food division, in addition to clothing, education and restaurants and hotels. In the first of them, the pressures due to production costs will maintain significant increases, which, however, will be lower than those seen in the month of January”, assured Alejandro Reyes, principal economist at BBVA Research in Colombia.
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On the Itaú side, the bank indicated that for the second month of the year, consumer prices are expected to increase 1.4% monthly, pressured by food costs, the transportation split (in part driven by fuel prices), along with seasonal adjustments in the education component. And in this way, annual inflation would reach 7.74%.
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