Known the final balance of budget execution, which did not leave the government of Gustavo Petro well, the market expectation was again focused on the balance sheet of income and expenses of the 2024 that must present The Ministry of Finance in these weeks, since there will finally be known whether or not the fiscal rule was fulfilled.
Although in previous days analysis of organisms such as carf has been known, which says that, based on the rhythm of expenses of December, it is most likely that this reference would have been breached; Analysts recommended waiting to have all the data to avoid unnecessary panic and protect investor trust.
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According to a pronouncement of the Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee released at the end of November, in December of last year no more than $ 5 billion could be spent, if they wanted The expense in this period was six times higher and exceeded $ 30 billion.
Because of this, although it makes it clear that they are preliminary figures, the minhagienda would have flown in at least $ 21 billion the spending stop. This information must still be adjusted based on references such as different income to the tributaries, floating debt and other components of the tax balance sheet at the close of the past validity.
Ministry of Finance and Public Credit.
Photo: CEET – Néstor Gómez
The moves in the Treasury
Portfolio consulted several sources from the National Government and the Minister of Finance, Diego Guevara about this situation, and from there, first of all, there was a part of tranquility regarding compliance with the fiscal rule. However, it was known that there are serious differences with the CARF, since they have different visions regarding certain items and this, therefore, derive in different tax balances.
First, Minister Guevara told this medium that the country It cannot ignore that a significant effort has been made to comply with the fiscal rule, with an expenditure cut of $ 28.8 billion and strict management of the box, through annualized cash plans, which have allowed to overcome the Fall in collection.
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“We have resorted to technical analysis to determine what constitutes or not a transaction of only time, since these are not included within the fiscal rule. The fiscal rule is forceful and, when affected by certain episodes, it is similar to what happened when the Court denied the litigation on the non -deductibility of royalties, ”he explained.
Precisely, in what is known as transactions of the only time or “One-off”, is where the movement made by the Government to establish that it fulfilled the fiscal rule. There were two elements that immediately They generated positions found such as carf, due to different interpretations of the theory.
Colombian pesos
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Royalties and taxes
According to what was said by government sources, the first item that the Ministry of Finance wants , which increased fiscal collection and by 2023, an abrupt drop in these prices drastically reduced tax revenues.
“The confis has already voted on these issues, and in this scenario we will comply The tax rule of 2024. It is important to note that in 2023 we complied with slack, while in 2024 we probably achieve it with a very tight margin. By 2025, it will be necessary to ensure new resources, and additional adjustments may be required to guarantee compliance with the fiscal rule, ”added Diego Guevara.
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The second element has to do with the Constitutional Court ruling on the non -deductibility of royalties. There, from the Government it was warned that the Court determined that royalties cannot be deduced as an expense on income tax and generated a significant fiscal impact that they described as an extraordinary event that should not affect the fiscal rule, since it is a Punctual adjustment that will not be repeated over time.
According to the academy, transactions of only time (One-off) are exceptional economic events that occur in a non-recurring way and that can temporarily affect public finances. These events do not reflect a structural trend of income or government expenses, so they are excluded of the calculation of the fiscal rule to avoid distortions in the sustainability of public accounts.
Trains shock
According to the consolidated income of the Nation with a court to November, of the $ 503.6 billion that the Government said it was going to receive, it has only reached $ 371.5 billion, that is, just 73.8% of the projected goal . Taking into account that the obligations with cut in December reached $ 394.7 billion, the country would have had to raise at least $ 23.2 billion so as not to be in deficit.
This is why the Ministry of Finance would have resorted to this measurewith the endorsement of the National Fiscal Policy Council (Confis), so as not to count some amounts in primary expenditure and thus prevent income needs so high at the end of last year, which would meet the rule fiscal.
Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee – CARF
Courtesy – API
Faced with what to expect, from study centers as Corficolombiana, they point out that “in the next two weeks the tax closure of 2024 will be known. We anticipate that the Government fulfilled the fiscal rule, thanks to inclusion as transactions only only time for tax returns For the non -deductibility of royalties and balances in favor of taxes, part of the payment of the debt to the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, among others ”.
Although the CARF already put its cards on the table and in its calculations the rule would not be fulfilled by 2024, the minhacienda reiterated that the concept of this committee is not binding and that it is enough to have the endorsement of the confis , the market It does not give a possible clash of trains that affect the confidence of investors.
