After ending 2024 over R $ 7.3 trillion And at record level, the Federal Public Debt (DPF) is expected to reach the end of this year between R $ 8.1 trillion and R $ 8.5 trillion. The figures were released on Tuesday (4) by the National Treasury, which presented the Annual Public Debt Financing Plan (PAF) to 2025.
The plan presents goals for public debt for this year. Just like last year, Government created a space to reduce the slice of prefixed securities (with fixed and defined interest rates in advance) and increase the participation of papers corrected by the Selic rate (basic interest rates). This would help to attract investors to Selic -linked titles, which are at the highest level in almost two years.
According to the document, the portion of the DPF linked to Selic should end the year in a range between 48% and 52%, against 43% and 47% interval. It is currently 46.29%. The slice of prefixed securities is expected to end the year between 22% and 26%, practically stable compared to the current 21.99% currently recorded.
The proportion of public debt corrected by price indices should be between 25% and 29%. Today is 26.96%. Already the participation of the debt corrected by the exchange rate, considering the external public debt, should end the year between 3% and 7%. The current percentage is 4.76%. The numbers do not take into account the purchase and sale operations of dollars in the future market by the Central Bank, which interfere with the result.
Last year, according to the revised version in September, PAF predicted that federal public debt could end 2024 between $ 7 trillion and $ 7.4 trillion.
Composition
In 2024, the DPF had a large increase in securities corrected by Selic, which rose from 39.66% in December 2023 to 46.29% in the last month, within the revised band from 43% to 47% in force for the last year . According to the Treasury, this was due to the high of the Selic rate (basic interest rates of the economy), which attracted back the investors of these roles.
Participation of prefixed papers (with interest defined at the time of emission) fell from 26.53% in 2023 to 21.99% in 2024. The percentage was close to the maximum limit set by PAF of 2024, which estimated that the participation would end the year between 22% and 26%. With the increase in Selic, investors fled the prefixed securities, more subject to market oscillations and that can cause damage if rescued before the deadline.
The slice of inflation corrected by 29.76% to 26.96%, within the interval established between 25% and 29%. The debt corrected by the exchange rate, considering the external public debt, closed 2021 by 4.76%, also within the margin of 3% to 7% estimated in PAF.
Floating rates corrected increases the risk of public debt, because Selic presses more government indebtedness when the economy’s basic interest rates go up. When the Central Bank readjus the basic interest rates, the part of Selic’s internal debt corrected immediately.
In theory, prefixed papers bring more predictability. This is because the interest of these titles are defined at the time of emission and does not vary over time. This way, the Treasury knows exactly how much interest will pay for interest in several years, when the papers win and investors have to be refunded. However, prefixed titles have higher rates than Selic and increase the cost of public debt in times of economic instability.
Term
The annual financing plan also opened a margin to increase the DPF term. At the end of 2024, the average term was 4.05 years. PAF has stipulated that it will be between 3.8 and 4.2 years at the end of December. The Treasury discloses estimates in years, not in months. Already the share of the debt that wins in the next 12 months will end 2025 between 17% and 21%. It is currently at 17.9%.
According to the Treasury, the government has two security mechanisms to ensure funding capacity in the event of an economic crisis that does not allow the Treasury to launch securities in the market. First, the government has sufficient international reserves to pay the external public debt salaries in 2025, totaling R $ 61.22 billion. In addition, the government has a mattress of R $ 860.15 billion to cover 6.24 months of the internal public debt salaries.
Through public debt, the National Treasury issues titles and borrowed money from investors to honor commitments. In return, the government is committed to returning funds with some correction, which can follow the Selic rate, inflation, exchange or be prefixed, defined in advance.
