The Fiscal Rule Autonomous Committee recently published a press release in which he warned that the country spent more in December 2024 and that, due to this, the limits established in the fiscal rule would have been passed by $ 21 billion. This statement was rejected by the Ministry of Finance, which immediately recalled that the concept of this organism is non -binding and that its accounts show a more encouraging panorama.
Likewise, this committee stressed that by 2025, validity in progress, The cost of spending must go beyond the $ 12 billion that has already been postponed or otherwise the compliance with the rule will be put at risk, given that the income of the nation does not go through a good time and require an urgent squeery of the belt.
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In a talk with Portfolio, Astrid Martínez, president of the CARF, explained the foundations of her approach and said it is a warning with the available preliminary figures, since they are waiting for the final data to issue a pronouncement on the tax closure of 2024 .
“With the current information, we find that the fiscal deficit of that year would have exceeded the goal provided for in the medium -term tax framework. Second, we draw attention to the Box position of the National Government, which closed In December 2024 at a significantly lower level than the historical average, ”he said.
The Committee spokeswoman recalled that while this average is located at $ 13.6 billion, the cash balance at the end of last year was just $ 3.7 billion, which marks the fiscal pressures projected by 2025, a period in which An additional adjustment of around $ 40 billion will be required to comply with the fiscal rule.
Astrid Martínez, president of the CARF.
Courtesy – API
Did you spend more?
In his explanations about the concept issued, Astrid Martínez too He referred to the spending balance for December, a point in which he reiterated that although since November it was said that the box was going to be limited during the end of the year, in the end it would have ended up having a high amount of resources.
“The $ 5.4 billion were an estimate that we had calculated to guarantee the fulfillment of the fiscal rule parameters and the primary balance goal established in the medium -term fiscal framework. In that sense, the available fiscal space was limited to that figure. That margin was very limited and with the current figures, it is evident that the real spending reached $ 30.4 billion pesos, not including some adjustments that must still be made, ”he said.
Regarding the differences that would be emerging with the Ministry of Finance, the president of the CARF added that everything is specifically due to the only time transactions, an issue that will be explained in greater detail When the Government presents its report to Congress on compliance with the fiscal rule.
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“As approved by the Confis, with these transactions, the fiscal rule would be fulfilled. In terms of procedure, the CARF, the Ministry of Finance and the Confis follow a protocol in which the Committee must previously pronounce on these transactions. However, this pronouncement is not binding, ”he explained.
That said, it made it clear that “in our concept, we manifest disagreement With the total amount presented by the Ministry of Finance, because we consider that some of these transactions did not classify as only time. The discussion revolves around whether they are survivable facts, if these transactions sustain public finances or if they modify revenues or expenses. ”
From the CARF they asked not to overlook that when talking about transactions for once, it must be evaluated whether the facts that originated them are direct or not consequence of the decisions of the national government and whether or not they correspond to the disposal of assets, which In this case, for them, he does not apply.
Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee – CARF
Courtesy – API
Who listens?
In the autonomous fiscal rule committee they are aware that their concept is non -binding and that works as an alert that should be heard by the authorities when making any decision in terms of spending and in this way they tend to fiscal stability and the management of state finance.
“Throughout the year 2024, we warned that there was an uncertain income projection. As the collection progresses, both the government and we incorporate that data and its dynamics to continue evaluating the fulfillment of the fiscal rule. This is verified at the end of the year, so we cannot affirm in advance that in 2025 it will not be fulfilled, ”he said.
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However, he indicated that “what we point out is that it would not be fulfilled If the necessary adjustment is not materialized to transform the projected income, which we consider uncertain, in certain income. It is essential that appropriate measures are taken to guarantee fiscal stability and compliance with the country’s financial objectives ”.
Astrid Martínez, president of the CARF, closed highlighting that “our concepts are heard both by the market and by the Ministry of Finance, which takes care of them. These arguments contribute to fiscal management, framed within the debate that the Ministry maintains with other government entities. ”
That is why he described as “fundamental” that all actors related to the country’s economy, official or private, understand the limitations to increase spending, since this is subject to a fiscal restriction that governs the administration of public finances and that “our mission is strictly technical, not political, and We work based on objective criteria to guarantee compliance with the fiscal rule. ”
