Havana.- The economy of the Cuban regime is an eternal Leave-Vú. What ever happened in the recent past with the CUC is returning us. And precisely because they have promised (in the same television program where we listen to Alejandro Gil talk about the “right path”) “respect” the accounts in MLC, is that we are sure they will not, nor is there anything firm with one “partial dollarization“That in essence it remains the same: I pay you with a role that does not work and I charge you with another very difficult to get.
When they find another “express route” to enter dollars, but without ever giving up looting citizen pockets, then they will say that dollarization was a mistake. But everything indicates that this time the “error” will be extended for a long time because all the other looting roads have been closing.
Tourism continues in free fall; The marketing of medical services is in its worst moments; Shipping businesses to Cubafor its obvious connection with the Castro dome, they are probably already sightd by the White House. That is what we add that the drill of openings for a “private sector” of fantasy ended in groan rematch; The collection of remittances directly is stopped by the sanctions to Fincimex and Orbit SA; while the announced deportations endanger the army of remittance issuers that set out to create with the massive exodus.
The mutation plans initiated with Barack Obama failed, Joe Biden’s support came but too late and Kamala Harris was defeated by Donald Trump, who in just 10 days and with a couple of measures has made it clear that it will not be easy to negotiate with him Yes, like the previous times, to the “dialogue” table they only carry a bunch of political prisoners.
The panorama does not look promising for those who did not count on Donald Trump to return to the Oval office. The dreams of “mutating” in “good dictatorship”, headed by an elite of repressors-company willing to agree with whoever it is in exchange for blurring and new account with the past, seem to be about to break irremediably, and they barely have The option of accumulating enough dollars, in cash, to be able to escape when this pressure pot – without the security valve that are the exodus, remittances and political prisoners as exchange currency – explodes them in the face.
In this sense (and also in the nonsense of “defolarizing dollarizing”) the “partial dollarization” is simply a trick, an act of illusionism after which it is hidden not only the scam as a usual practice but that plan B of the escape that , at this point in the game, with the obvious unpopularity of the measure, it is emerging as the only plan.
The war exercises, the alleged “muscles exhibition” that has barely put them ridiculous in social networks, marches and exacerbated propagand Castro shows some ideological coherence with those times when Fidel Castro could at least boast of having leadership between his own forces, but it turns out that the old strategy no longer works, it is obsolete even inside the communist ranks where more than one – taking The end so close – is waiting or mutating or fleeing, because “resistance” has always been a myth manufactured tailored to the misery that surrounds us and that we “resist” to see.
The plans paint badly because this time they come for everyone. The idea of renewing an old guard, already tired and disappointed, in the influence groups within the United States could not bloom with deportations and other measures to control emigration and its relationships with the dictatorship that could come, and those were Key points for the survival of a regime that is only maintained by virtue of those vents and exhaust valves that are what we could call the “faithful emigration” but that is actually treated in most cases of true agents worked by the Cuban intelligence.
Not only is the regime, the elite that forms it, who is placed in the brand and ready to mutate or run, but many of those businesses that pay him (Katapult, by Hugo Cancioamong the former) and that for being handled by the communists from the shadows they could have already begun to look for their own escape door, trying in other markets in the region, even in Europe, diversifying, because they intuit the debacle that is avoided.
At that point, with this “partial dollarization” – so much it is not possible to “dollarize” anything in Cuba if it is not completely – perhaps this time we would not be so much in that Leave-Vú of the experiments as in the very implementation of a plan B that has the sole purpose with whom apparently the conversations have not finished, and only for that reason the release of prisoners continues, despite what happened.
We will never see the “drearization”, as we never saw the markets in Cuban pesos supplied with the proceeds in the stores in MLC. But this time we will be waiting for not because another Gil betrayed (since as well as “traitor” was described by former Comptroller Gladys Bejerano) or because another Murillo is wrong with the experiment but because they have never thought about “disdaining.” The thing is now a true evacuation operation, a desperate zafarrancho to grab all the cash they can and run away. Because if in 10 days with Donald Trump the thing looks bad, in four years, of the communists trapped on the island, the ashes will barely remain.
