The price of US dollar He had a downward behavior in January, mitigating a bit the upward pressures with which he ended 2024 compared to Colombian weight. For the closing of the first month of the year, it had a price below 4,200 pesos.
And it is expected that the dollar, despite the aggressive commercial policies of the US President Donald Trumphas a 2025 of relative stability, or at least, this is what Credicorp Capital projects in its forecasts for this year.
In fact, The firm expects the reference currency in the global market to fluctuate between 3,900 and 4,700 pesoshaving a averaged price of 4,300 pesos.
(You can read: What were the currencies that starred in the world market in 2024?).
What will be the price of the dollar in Colombia after Trump’s assumption?
EFE
Alejandro Guerrero, senior associate of Credicorp Capital CurrencyHe assured that his sustained fall is due to the flexibility of the dollar’s bullish pressures since the 78 Republican magnate returned to the White House.
(Further: Marco Rubio starts touring Latin America in the midst of migratory tensions).
“The arrival of Trump brought with it the decrease of the upward pressures in the dollar that we had observed presidential post-elections, because, initially the markets assumed as inflationary the commercial, migratory and business policies that Trump had announced, where the Ads to impose tariffs up to 50% for China exports and up to 25% for exports from Mexico and Canada; And tariff threats aimed at the euro zone, this generated fear in the markets for the mainly inflationary economic effects, which would bring these commercial measures“said the expert.
He mentioned that, after the return of the Republican tycoon to the White House, the arrival of this economic phenomenon was transmitted “in proportion“To the currencies of emerging countries and, even, in Latin America, where it was observed that the price of the dollar was over 4,430 pesos at the beginning of January.
Dollar in Colombia.
However, the analyst explained that “Once the presidency has been assumed, Trump has been showing a less aggressive profile that the markets expected in terms of the imposition of commercial measures, thus reducing nervousness in the markets that have even been operating in a risk appetite mode, which which It generates, proportionally, the sale of dollar positions and the appetite for risk assets“
Cárdenas said that this has allowed us to observe an important advance of the stock market rates in this week and a setback in the dollar price, which closed the week operating near 3,000 pips Below the maximum of the month, closing Friday at 107.29 points with the reference of the 110 points.
The weight of Colombia
The senior associate of Credicorp Capital currencies said that, in what is responsible for the Colombian economy, he said that one of the factors that has been helping the recoil of the contribution of the US currency is The placement of external bonds by up to 3,779 million dollars seeking the financing of the budget of the year 2025“relieveing, at least, in the short arm the noise of the fiscal deficit with which the government of the year 2024 was thrown“
(You can read: A currency that replaces the dollar: keys to the dispute between Trump and the BRICS).
He also mentioned that the fact that the qualifier Standard & Poor’s Global He maintained Colombia’s qualification in BBB with a negative perspective, it was also a relief for national markets, because “Due to the noise around the budget financing by the year 2025 and the doubts about the fulfillment of the fiscal rule, there was a certain fear of a reduction in the country’s credit note, which would have translated into an upward bouncing of the rate of change for the negative effect that said movement had had in the country’s risk premium“
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