Pressured by floods in Rio Grande do Sul and the growth of mandatory spending, such as Social Security and Continuing Benefit Benefit (BPC), the Central Government – National Treasury, Social Security and Central Bank – ended 2024 with a primary deficit of 43.004 billion (0 , 36% of Gross Domestic Product, GDP). The number was released on the afternoon of Thursday (30) by the National Treasury.
The value represents a real drop (inflation discounted) of 81.7% compared to 2023, when the primary deficit had been R $ 228.499 billion, pulled by the payment of late precatories. The result came better than expected by financial institutions. According to the Prism Fiscal survey, released every month by the Ministry of Finance, market analysts expected negative results of $ 55.4 billion last year.
In considering only spending within the tax framework, the primary deficit was R $ 11.032 billion (0.09% of GDP). The value is within the tolerance margin of R $ 28.75 billion established by the 2024 Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO). This result excludes about R $ 31.8 billion in extraordinary credits, most of Rio Grande’s reconstruction Southern, and R $ 143 million relating to tax waivers.
In December alone, there was a primary surplus of R $ 24.026 billion, above the forecast of the fiscal prism, which estimated a positive result of R $ 17.76 billion. In December 2023, the result had been negative at R $ 116.033 billion, because of the payment of precatory (debts with definitive court judgment) suspended by the previous government.
The primary result represents the difference between revenues and spending, disregarding the payment of public debt interest. The 2024 LDO and the tax framework set a zero primary deficit goal, with a tolerance margin of 0.25 percentage point of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) up or down to the central government. At the lower limit of the goal, this is equivalent to the deficit of up to R $ 28.75 billion.
At the end of November, a special edition of the Revenue and Expenses Evaluation Report It projects primary deficit of R $ 64.426 billion for the central government, equivalent to a negative result of 0.56% of GDP. The account, however, includes expenses outside the tax framework, such as the payment of precatory and extraordinary credits to rebuild Rio Grande do Sul and combat forest fires.
The 2024 deficit could have been even higher, it was not the rooting of R $ 12.5 billion. Room represents the committed (authorized) resources that cannot be spent by the government, such as imposing amendments or linked expenses that cannot be relocated within the same ministry.
On the recipe side, the Record collection of 2024 prevented a higher deficit. The collection was aided by the extraordinary revenues of the taxation of exclusive funds, fuels and economic growth, which was reflected in payment of more taxes.
Revenues
Compared to 2023, the revenues rose, but the expenses fell if inflation discounted. Last year, net revenues rose 13.9% in nominal values. Discounted inflation by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the increase reaches 9%.
If you consider only the revenues administered (relating to tax payment), there was an increase of 12.5% by 2024, already discounted inflation. Revenues not administered by the IRS rose only 3.6% above inflation in 2024. Despite the growth of R $ 20.2 billion in the transfer of state -owned dividends to the National Treasury and R $ 7.2 billion in concessions to the initiative Private, oil royalties grew only R $ 923.8 million above inflation, in a falling price scenario in the international market.
Expenses
Last year, total expenses rose 3.5% in nominal values, but fell 0.7% after discounting inflation. The main factor for the drop in expense was the Payment of R $ 92 billion of precatory In December 2023, which was not repeated in December 2024.
Without the precatory, there would be a growth of 3.5% of total expenses above inflation, driven by social transfers and the policy of valorization of the minimum wage. Social security spending rose only 0.1% above 2024, with the slowdown caused by the payment of precatory at the end of 2023. Spending on the continued benefit (BPC) jumped 14.9% above inflation (BPC). Last year for the same reasons. The payment of extraordinary credits rose 777.5% in addition to inflation because of the reconstruction of Rio Grande do Sul.
Even with the revision of Bolsa Familia records, expenditures on mandatory expenses with flow control (which encompasses social programs) rose 4.7% discounted inflation compared to 2023.
Discretionary (non -compulsory) spending fell 3.8% in 2024 discounted inflation. Of this total, most stems from blockages in the budget in force during the second semester.
Spending on federal functionalism fell 3.2% in 2024, discounted inflation. The fall was pulled by the discharge of precatory at the end of 2023, which fell 79.4%, discounted inflation
As for investments (public works and equipment purchase), the total in 2024 added R $ 87.649 billion. The value represents only 1.5% above the IPCA compared to 2023. In recent months, this expense has alternated moments of growth and declining inflation. The Treasury attributes volatility to the variable rhythm in the flow of public works.
Matter expanded at 3:38 pm.
