Then, the short -term effects of tariff 80% of its exports are allocated to the United States.
With tariffs it is estimated that the most pronounced impact will be in key strategic industries, such as automotive, technology and manufacturing, while they would be less pronounced in retail trade, which has a more internal approach.
“The effect of tariffs and reprisals would be extended to the figures of direct trade between the United States and Mexico, due to intermediate inputs for assembly and processing, which are transferred from one side to another within the manufacturing, automotive, automotive industries and technological from both countries, “says Moody’s.
The qualifier adds that, the imposition of tariffs would also lead to the depreciation of the weight, with an effect of transmission to inflation in Mexico, which would limit the margin for monetary flexibility.
At the same time, inflationary pressures would arise if Mexico responded by imposing its own
Tariffs on American imports.
“This dynamic would complicate Mexico’s efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit and increase pressure on the sovereign credit profile,” warns the qualifying agency.
Although the threat remains latent, Moody’s says it is not clear if the proposed tariffs will be implemented.
“They can form the basis of negotiations that lead to exemptions in concessional terms, or use as a negotiation tactic before the next review of the TMEC agreement. It is also possible that some or most tariffs have a short life or not implemented Not at all “precise.
