According to the Central Reserve Bank (BCR), The loans of the financial system To companies and people experienced a slowdown in 2024. The monetary authority indicated that they grew only 0.5% last year, after 2023 advanced at 1.3%.
The variation of the credit in 2024 is equivalent to a sixth of the expected growth for the economy. In addition, as of November, the GDP of the financial sector and Insurance registered a drop of 1.88% in the last 12 months; A setback that the Minister of Economy, José Arista, associated the ‘minor’ speed with the BCR has dropped its reference interest rate.
What factors have really explained the slowdown in credit?
Factors
Several factors are associated. First, the impact of the Peru Reactive Credit portfolio, which were granted to relieve the interruption of the payment chain that originated the health crisis. This wallet still has current balances. According to the BCR, without reactive, the loans of the financial system to the private sector would have grown 1.6% in 2024 and 5% in 2023.
Another factor, no less important is the low performance of the economy of the last two years. Enrique Castellanos, professor of the Faculty of Economics and Finance of the University of the Pacific, said that said dim dyamism was reflected in the fulfillment of customer payments and in the caution of the bank to lend.
“(The low growth of credit) is a reflection of the mediocre behavior of the Peruvian economy. Everyone thought that after the pandemic, everything was going to bounce, but 2023 had a recession; And while 2024 there was a recovery, the growth of GDP from 2021 to 2024 has been marginal, ”said Castellanos.
Of the seven credits classifications that they offer today in the financial system, loans to companies decreased 0.1% last year. In contrast, financing to people increased 1.3%. However, loans to companies represent 59% of the total portfolio.
According to the BCR, on the side of corporate financing and the large company, this grew 5.5%, explained by a greater flow of new disbursements in the fishing, agriculture, public services, and construction sectors, which registered a recovery at the levels of production in 2024.
With an opposite trend, credits to medium, small and microenterprises (MSMEs) registered a 6.3%drop. According to the BCR, associated with the highest risk observed in these wallets since 2023, although this deterioration, in some cases it was moderating in 2024.
To give us an idea, at the end of September 2023, the backward, refinant, restructured and as loss of loans to medium -sized companies represented 19.9% of the total of these credits and September 2024 reached 19.6%.
This same fate did not run the loan portfolios to the small and microenterprises. The former went from 14.8% in September 2023 to 17.4% in September 2024 and the second from 12% to 12.6% in said period.
People
On the side of the people, it was the mortgages that promoted the credit with an annual rate of 5%. However, consumption financing was contracted by 1.1%, mainly due to the reduction of loans with credit cards.
According to the BCR, the payment breach indicator of consumer loans went from 11.7% in September 2023 to 15.2% in September 2024.
For Castellanos, the statements of the minister aristing to associate the credit fall with the adjustment speed of the BCR rate do not make sense.
According to the professor, the cost of funds incurred by banks to finance their credits, which depends on the reference rate of the BCR, is not significant for the level of rates that banks charge, for example, for credit cards.
With which, that the BCR rate is uploaded or maintained, the impact is lower than the one that has, for example, the fact that people do not pay their credits on time or that they definitely stop doing so.
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