The financial market increased its inflation and economic growth projections for this year. According to the Focus Bulletin, released this Monday (20) by the Central Bank, inflation, measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), was 5.08%, compared to 5% last week. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the sum of goods and services produced in the country, should close 2025 at 2.04%, compared to 2.02 the previous week.
The Focus survey is carried out with financial market economists and released weekly by the BC. For 2026, the bulletin shows a GDP growth projection of 1.77%. For 2027 and 2028, the economic expansion projection is 2% for both years.
Regarding inflation, the bulletin projects an index of 4.10% for 2026, compared to 4.05 last week. For 2027, the financial market has an IPCA projection of 3.9% and 3.58% in 2028.
Last year, the IPCA, which takes into account the variation in the cost of living of families with an income of up to 40 minimum wages, closed last year at 4.83%, above the target ceiling, which was 4.5% .
Interest rate
Regarding the basic interest rate, the Selic, Focus maintained last week’s projection of 15%, for 2025. Four weeks ago the projection was 14.75%. For 2026, the financial market projection is that the Selic will remain at 12.25%, a slight increase compared to the 12% projected last week. For 2027 and 2028, the projections are that the rate will be 10.25% and 10%, respectively.
To achieve the inflation target, the Central Bank uses as its main instrument the basic interest ratethe Selic, set at 12.25% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).
At the end of last year, the board increased the Selic by 1 percentage point (pp), with the justification that the financial market’s reaction to the federal government’s fiscal package made the inflationary scenario more adverse, demanding an “even more contractionary” policy.
Still according to the Copom, the most adverse scenario for the convergence of inflation to the target for 2025, of 3%, with a tolerance range of 1.5% to 4.5% may require new increases of 1 percentage point at Selic in the next two committee meetings: in January, on the 28th and 29th, and in March, on the 18th and 19th.
Exchange
In relation to the exchange rate, the forecast for the dollar exchange rate was R$6.00 for 2025. At the end of 2026, the forecast is that the North American currency will also be at R$6.00. For 2027, the exchange rate should also remain, according to Focus, at R$5.92 and for 2028, the projection is R$5.99.
