The financial market has increased its inflation forecast for 2022 for the seventh consecutive time. According to the projection of the Focus bulletin, released today (2) by the Central Bank, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should close 2022 at 5.6%. A week ago, the market forecast was that inflation would stay at 5.56% this year. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 5.38%.
For 2023, the market also raised expectations regarding the evolution of the IPCA. Four weeks ago, the forecast was for 3.5% inflation next year, but this week’s
went to 3.51%. For 2024, the market raised the estimate to 3.1%, compared to the 3.09% projected last week.
Published weekly, the Focus bulletin gathers market projections for the country’s main economic indicators. In this week’s projection, Focus maintained the forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of all goods and services) registered seven days ago, of 0.3%, in 2022. This is the fourth consecutive week that the market maintains the projection of economic growth by 0.3%.
For 2023, the Focus also recorded the same GDP expectation as last week, of 1.5%. Four weeks ago, GDP was estimated to grow by 1.55%. For 2024, the projection remained stable at 2%.
Interest rate and exchange
The market maintained the forecast for the basic interest rate, the Selic, at 12.25%. Four weeks ago, the projection was 1.75%.
In February, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), increased interest rate from 9.25% to 10.75% per annum. In a statement, the Copom indicated that it will continue to raise basic interest rates until inflation is controlled in the medium term.
By the end of 2023, the market estimates that the basic interest rate will drop to 8% per year. For 2024, the forecast is for a Selic rate of 7.25% per year, compared to 7.38% in the previous week’s projection.
The market’s expectation for the dollar rate this year was R$ 5.50, the same as the previous week. For 2023, the forecast also decreased, from R$5.36 to R$5.31. For 2024, the estimate is BRL 5.30, the same amount projected last week.
