As Trump prepares to take office and Sheinbaum has had public clashes with him, she has also presented concrete results that could help demonstrate that Mexico is serious about cooperation on migration, security and China.
It’s hard to know if that will be enough or if the threat of tariffs on Trump’s first day in office was entirely realistic, but experts and former diplomats say the Mexican president is off to a solid start.
“It’s a very pragmatic and proactive approach by Sheinbaum and his team,” said Gema Kloppe-Santamaría, a researcher at the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute.
Trump has repeatedly accused the Mexican government of not doing enough to stop migrants and drugs from entering the United States and has threatened to impose sweeping tariffs to force it to take more action. He has also criticized the installation of Chinese plants in Mexico.
But since taking office, Sheinbaum has intensified an already historic crackdown on migrants traveling to the U.S. border by detaining an unprecedented 475,000 between October and December and has left open the possibility that Mexico may be willing to accept non-Mexicans deported from the United States.
His government has also seized a record amount of just over a ton of illicit fentanyl, imposed new tariffs on some Asian products, and seized counterfeit Chinese goods in several cities.
“She is sending the message that she is a strong political leader,” Kloppe-Santamaría said, pointing to recent polls that show Sheinbaum has increased her popularity to a staggering 80% after her first 100 days in office. “Trump certainly has a lot of power and legitimacy, but so does she,” Kloppe-Santamaría added.
Reuters spoke to seven economic analysts, former Mexican diplomats and academic experts on Mexican politics. Most praised Sheinbaum’s strategy for reaching out to Trump.
“This commitment that Mexico has demonstrated to fully align its interests with those of the United States is what makes us more confident that President Claudia Sheinbaum and President-elect Donald Trump will overcome the initial threats and uncertainty,” said Rodolfo Ramos, from Bradesco BBI.
Calculation error
The future American leader is known for being unpredictable, but Sheinbaum has also maintained an element of surprise, said Jorge Guajardo, former Mexican ambassador to China. While she has suggested that Mexico could impose retaliatory tariffs, she has not revealed details.
“She has been very intelligent and strategic,” Guajardo added. “You want to keep your powder dry.”
But for former Mexican ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhán, the Sheinbaum government may not be reading the situation correctly. “I think that’s a big miscalculation,” he said.
“There is a sense that this is some kind of show (by Trump) and that it is used to extract concessions and negotiate and demonstrate to his base that he is doing what he was going to do and that at the end of the day he will not do what he promised.” , he stated.
Mexico is one of the countries that has the most to lose in a second Trump presidency, experts say.
The United States is by far Mexico’s largest trading partner, and the Republican leader’s tariff threats could have a strong impact on the Mexican economy.
Trump has also promised mass deportations that could affect the Mexican labor market, generate humanitarian and security problems in a country already shaken by violence, internal displacement and weak economic growth.
