The services sector, which employs the most in the economy and brings together activities such as transport, food, real estate and tourism, fell 0.9% from October to November. In October, the sector had reached the highest point in the historical series, started by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in January 2011.
In the first 11 months of 2024, the volume of services increased by 3.2%. In 12 months, the accumulated positive rate reaches 2.9%. Compared to November 2023, there was an expansion of 2.9%.
With data from the Monthly Services Survey (PMS) released this Wednesday (15), IBGE points out that the sector is 16.9% above the pre-pandemic level (February 2020).
The 0.9% decline is the most intense in the comparison between immediately consecutive months since April 2023 (-1.8%). IBGE makes seasonality adjustments to the information, so that it is appropriate to compare results between different months, even if they are not followed.
The research manager, Rodrigo Lobo, assesses that November’s negative data does not mean a change in the trajectory from growth to decline. Lobo also estimates that, even if there is no growth in the services sector in December 2024 compared to December 2023, which he considers to be unlikely, the sector will close the year with an increase of 2.9%, repeating the final result of 2023. “It will probably be the fourth consecutive year of growth”, he points out.
Lobo explains that the negative result in November was concentrated in two of the five activities surveyed: transport (-2.7%) and professional, administrative and complementary services (-2.6%).
The analyst remembers that the declines in these two activities follow two consecutive months of increases, that is, November was just a return of gains. “The balance of these activities in the last three months is still positive.”
The transport sector works as an anchor for the monthly survey results, as it has a weight of 36.4% in the PMS.
One of the explanations for the decline in transport as a whole is the drop in road freight transport – impacted by lower agricultural production.
“This mode is closely linked to agricultural production, inputs and fertilizers”, details Lobo.
Other negative influences were passenger air transport – impacted by the rise in air ticket prices; and public road passenger transport.
The groups with high rates were information and communication (1%), other services (1.8%) and services provided to families (1.7%).
YTD
In the 11 months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, there was an expansion of 3.2%, with positive rates in four of the five activities. The diffusion index, which shows the percentage of service types with growth, reached 61.4% of the 166 items covered by the survey.
Tourism
The IBGE survey also includes the tourist activity index, which fell 1.8% from October to November. This data places activity 11.1% above the pre-pandemic level.
“The rise in air ticket prices in November exerted significant negative pressure on the real revenue of airlines, which ended up having a relevant negative impact on the special tourism indicator this month”, explained Rodrigo Lobo.
Compared to November 2023, the volume of tourist activities in Brazil grew 9.2%, the sixth increase in a row.
