How do Ukrainians see the year 2025?

Ukraine has had a difficult year. Following the Ukrainian army’s offensive in the Kursk region in the summer, Russia intensified its attacks in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as against energy facilities and cities. According to estimates by the American newspaper Wall Street JournalMoscow has deployed four times more drones and missiles this fall than in the same period in 2023.

Meanwhile, Republican Donald Trump’s victory in November’s US presidential election is causing uncertainty among Ukrainians. Although Trump has declared ending the war in Ukraine a foreign policy priority, it remains unclear how peace will be achieved. The extent of US military aid to kyiv is also unclear. At the same time, however, according to experts, more and more Ukrainians hope for a just peace through negotiations with Russia.

Volodymyr Fesenko of the Center for Applied Political Research “Penta” says that apart from the first weeks of the war in the spring of 2022, 2024 was the most difficult year so far. “The main thing is that we resist,” he emphasizes in an interview with DW.

Despite their fatigue, Ukrainians show a level of optimism, although lower, that is still “surprisingly high,” says Anton Hrushchezky of the kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). According to polls, between 83% and 88% believe in a victory. “But there is also pessimism, due to fears about the future and the frustrating feeling of not receiving enough support from the West,” he told DW, adding: “Big words were not followed by big deeds. What’s more, Ukrainians simply They do not have the opportunity to lay down their weapons. They know that war is for survival,” says the expert. The proportion of Ukrainians willing to endure the war as long as necessary has remained stable at around 60% since October.

At the same time, however, the idea of ​​negotiating with Russia is seen as increasingly acceptable. Compared to the previous year, the proportion of Ukrainians who categorically reject negotiations has fallen from a third to 12%, according to a survey conducted by the opinion research institute in November.

DW spoke with Yevhen in kyiv’s Independence Square, where the number of flags with the names of fallen Ukrainians increases every day. The soldier believes that negotiations with Russia are inevitable. At the same time, he hopes that they will turn out to be favorable to Ukraine. “Everything depends on the situation on the front. We need the help of our partners, we have to continue fighting, support the army and do everything possible to achieve victory,” he says. At the same time, he is skeptical about the strategy of waging war until all occupied territories have been liberated.

Mykhaylo Mishchenko, from the Razumkov Research Center, believes that people’s opinion about the negotiations is influenced above all by the change in rhetoric of the Ukrainian leaders, who since the summer have no longer ruled out that possibility. “But, like the government, people say they are willing to negotiate, but they don’t want to give up any territory,” says Mishchenko. Most see the talks as a way to achieve an outcome acceptable to Ukraine, including the return of occupied territories. However, according to the research center, the proportion of Ukrainians who would cede occupied territories to Russia for peace has increased slightly from five to nine percent over the year.

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that Donald Trump’s inauguration will change many things for kyiv. While the previous US administration of Democrat Joe Biden had always insisted that kyiv had to determine the timing of negotiations itself, Trump is firmly committed to them. However, it does not have a clear strategy for sustainable peace, criticizes Fesenko

Despite Trump’s contradictory statements about the war in Ukraine, according to Info Sapiens, Ukraine enjoys the highest level of trust in Europe, with almost 45%. The New Europe Center attributes this to the expectation that Trump will pursue a decisive policy in Ukraine and ensure peace.