Derived from a economic slowdown in Mexico For the following year, experts believe that this scenario may be a factor that impacts a weak job creation throughout 2025.
“Economic growth goes hand in hand with job creation and also what happens to gross fixed investment, where the survey of the manufacturing sector carried out by Inegi, and also employment in the manufacturing sector is going down. It has already been declining for 20 consecutive months,” says Gabriela Siller, director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banco Base.
In an interview with El Economista he explains that according to Survey of Private Sector Specialists from the Bank of Mexico, For 2025, a marked decline is expected, with a economic growth between 0.8 and 1 percent.
“For the following year, less job creation is expected, and it is possible that, given the economic slowdown, we will see not only a higher unemployment ratebut also greater underemployment, which is a structural problem,” he highlights.
Last October (latest data available), the Mexican labor market recovered its pace of job creation by generating 445,745 positionsaccording to the National Occupation and Employment Survey (ENOE). With this, the accumulated creation of places in the year is 723,563, but positive results have only been obtained in the months of February, March, May, July and October.
Janneth Quiroz, director of Economic, Exchange and Stock Market Analysis at Monex, agrees that Mexico will have a greater slowdown in economic activity that would pull down the job creation in 2025.
“We would see that job creation would be much lower than what would be recorded in all of 2024, which in itself, we have also seen a slowdown compared to last year’s job creation, but without a doubt I believe that 2025 will be a challenging year for the mexican economyand hence we are projecting that we will see a slowdown,” he comments.
The unemployment rate in the country it decreased from 2.9% to 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2024, when the indicator reached a proportion of 2.3 percent, according to the latest ENOE report.
For October, of the jobs created, six out of every 10 were formal jobs, while the informality rate reached 54.1 percent.
Siller estimates that in 2025 the informality rate It will be at figures similar to those observed in 2024, while more downward data is expected for formal employment.
“What could be the lifesaver, making better use of the opportunity of nearshoring and if the trade relationship with the United States improves. If Trump carries out his threats to impose tariffs on Mexican products, we would see a recession in Mexicoand therefore instead of job creation, destruction of formal employment,” he warns.
Challenges for the labor market in 2025
Quiroz details the labor market in 2025 has various challenges. While the unemployment rate is near historic lows in 2024, one of the main challenges is increase formal employment.
“More than half of the jobs that exist in Mexico are found within the informal sectorthen I believe that progress in this matter would be positive, both for the country’s public finances and for the workers who may be enjoying the benefits what the law establishes,” he says.
When questioned about the impact of the job proposals that are advancing and those that are sought to be discussed in 2025, Gabriela Siller emphasizes that when reforms are approved, uncertainty is generated.
“And in the case of reforms that involve changes in the labor market, in the short term they generate upward pressure on the labor costs of companies and then the immediate response is less hiring of personnel,” he highlights.
On the other hand, Janneth Quiroz adds that one of the challenges that the labor market in Mexico will have will be the specialization of workers towards potential sectors of companies that invest in the national territory.
“We have talked a lot about that one of the areas of opportunity for the nearshoring has to do with the lack of trained personnel. I think it is a very debatable issue, that, in comparative terms, Mexico does not have the best standards that other countries have, and I believe that it will be very opportune to continue discussing the way in which the labor sector becomes more efficient. , and clearly that this is accompanied by improvements for workers,” he highlights.
