Crude oil pumping from Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) fell in November at its highest annual rate in more than five years and followed 24 months of year-on-year declines, according to the company’s oil statistics published this Tuesday, December 24.
During the eleventh month of the year, the oil company’s oil extraction fell 10.2% to one million 407,000 barrels per day, which was its largest decline since the 10.3% in April 2019, when the indicator was still on the downward trajectory. that characterized him during the administration of former President Enrique Peña Nieto.
This pumping volume is already the smallest for Pemex since that observed in May 1979, which was 1,401,000 barrels per day, that is, more than 45 years ago.
The weakening of production coincides with the delicate situation of the state company’s arrears in paying its suppliers, among which are multiple providers of exploration and production services.
Some of these, according to sources with knowledge of the subject, have paused or reduced their level of activity, due to the lack of payment from Pemex, which as of the third quarter of 2024 had accounts payable with suppliers for 402,874 million pesos, a record level.
According to the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, the public company will catch up between now and February, through partial payments.
Liquid hydrocarbons, also down
When considering Pemex’s total liquid hydrocarbon production, which also includes condensate pumping, the story is not very different.
In November, condensate production fell 8.1% to 267,000 barrels per day, remaining at its lowest level since December 2022 (241,000 barrels per day).
So the production of liquid hydrocarbons (crude, plus condensates) fell 9.9% to one million 673,000 barrels per day, a volume that is the lowest since July 2020 (one million 647,000 barrels per day).
Since the last six years, Pemex has reported its crude oil and condensate production in a consolidated manner, although the latter have a smaller market.
Today, condensates – also called natural gasoline because they are very light – represent 15.5% of Pemex’s liquid hydrocarbon production and have been crucial in stopping the decline in Pemex’s pumping during the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
However, experts such as Fluvio Ruiz, former professional advisor to Pemex, have highlighted the need for Pemex to be more transparent regarding the destination of this type of hydrocarbons.
Production per asset
From January to November, the production of liquid hydrocarbons has fallen 5.6% to 1,772,000 barrels per day.
This is the lowest volume since 2021 for the same period of months (1,755,000 barrels per day) and also the first year-on-year drop in the indicator since the 7.9% slide observed in 2019.
When looking at the figures for Pemex’s 11 large producing assets, drops are observed in seven. The decreases observed in four of the oil company’s five main assets stand out.
Of the latter, the most pronounced was that of the Cantarell asset – another jewel in the crown of Mexican shallow waters – whose pumping was reduced 12.9% to 143,000 barrels per day.
On the Tabasco coast, for its part, production fell 12.2% to 288,000 barrels per day and in the Bellota-Juco asset there was a decline of 10.6% to 339,000 barrels.
Meanwhile, Ku-Maloob-Zaap, which has been the state company’s main asset for more than a decade, had a decrease of 4.4% to 589,000 barrels per day, which contributed a third of Pemex’s total crude oil and condensate pumping.
New goal
The new reality of Pemex’s declining assets, despite the fact that hydrocarbon production stabilized in the last six years, has forced the state company to recalibrate its production goals.
For this six-year term, the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has set a national production goal of 1.8 million barrels per day.
However, this volume also includes the production of private operators who hold the production contracts that were auctioned during the six-year term of former President Enrique Peña Nieto, after the sector was opened to private capital.
According to the National Strategy for the Hydrocarbons and Natural Gas Sector (ENSHGN) presented on November 13, Pemex’s average production goal for 2025-2030 is one million 702,200 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, private production would average 99,333 barrels per day, peaking in 2026, with 112,000 barrels per day.
According to the ENSHGN, for this six-year period, attention to strategic fields such as Zama and Trion, where Pemex has partnerships with private companies, will be a priority.
In addition, mixed projects (public-private) will be promoted “that allow increasing the reserve and production”, but always under the corporate control of Pemex.
