The geopolitics or the trade They are behind the onslaught of donald trump against him Panama Canal. The US president-elect is sending a message to Latin America that it has to align with US interests in the face of the seemingly inevitable trade war with China, and perhaps also pushing for a negotiation on tolls or for the Central American country to welcome migrants. who are heading north.
This is how analysts consulted by EFE understand the complaint expressed by Trump over the weekend about the “scam” of the rates and China’s alleged interference in the interoceanic waterway, for which he threatened to demand that it be “returned” to the United States if Panamanian officials do not act accordingly.
- The United States is the main user of the channel. He built and managed it until its transfer to Panama on December 31, 1999, which was achieved thanks to the Torrijos-Carter Treaties of 1977.
Trump’s threats come when Panama has just commemorated, on December 20, the 35th anniversary of the US invasion of the country to capture the dictator Manuel Antonio Noriega on drug trafficking charges, which left between 500 and 4,000 dead, and when there are just a few days left until the 25th anniversary of the channel transfer.
The position of the Republican leader should not be seen from the perspective of traditional politics“We have to understand it pragmatically, as Germany, France, and NATO have done,” since Trump “is trying to negotiate in his own way,” Panamanian economist and professor Eddie Tapiero told EFE.
“We have to work on it pragmatically, understanding the situation, looking for international alliances“says the Panamanian analyst.
The Panamanian president, José Raúl Mulino, has already stated that the “Panama Canal and its adjacent areas is Panama and will continue to be,” and that neither China, nor the European Community, nor the United States or any other power have “direct or indirect control” over it.
Geopolitics, China and American hawks
Trump, who will take office on January 20 for his second term, is sending “a message to Latin America that it has to align with the interests of the United States, which will enter into an inevitable trade war with China,” he told EFE. the economist Carlos Araúz.
This issue “goes far beyond tolls: Trump communicates a message about what will be protectionist policy of the United States over the next 4 years.
For Tapiero, Trump’s thesis about China and the canal may be related to the fact that the Panamanian ports of Balboa and Cristóbal are operated by Hutchison Wampoaa firm based in Hong Kong, something that does not affect the Authority of the Panama Canal“which manages independently and does not maintain commercial or financial ties.”
“This is the geopolitical edge,” Trump’s cabinet “is made up of many falcons antichinabut developing countries cannot remain in the middle of the fights of the giants because we need markets to develop,” Tapiero tells EFE.
Tolls and industrial policy
According to Trump, the tolls that the channel charges are “exorbitant.” Mulino responded that the rates “are not a whim,” they are established “in open hearing” with customers “considering market conditions,” and they cover “operational and road modernization costs.”
The Republican would be “trying to negotiate, I think the canal is very important for his policy, to keep prices low for the development of industrial policy of the United States”, in Tapiero’s opinion.
Araúz believes that there is little room for negotiation in this area, since “tolls are determined through the board of governors where the United States has a representative, and the shipping companies have representatives. Not even the Panamanian Government has anything to say about the toll. of the Panama Canal“.
“inflation “It’s going to skyrocket and eventually it’s going to cost the average American much more to live in their own country,” but because of Trump’s protectionist policy, he adds.
The migration crisis
Thousands of people pass through Panama every year. irregular migrants who travel to the US. The country already refused during Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021) to welcome this population while they process their legal entry into the US, an initiative that the Republican leader intends to revive.
The irregular migration “It would be one of the negotiation points that (Trump) is looking for, perhaps to see a mechanism that could get there” with Panama, says Tapiero.
He immigration issue “You have to attack in coordination (…) if a solution is going to be imposed from the perspective of only one side, it will most likely fail,” says Araúz.
Mulino asserted that with the new government of USA aspires “to preserve and maintain a respectful relationship” and that security issues such as illegal migration, drug trafficking, terrorism and organized crime have “priority” on the bilateral agenda. EFE
