The closing of the first period of the third legislature in Colombia marks a crucial point in the government of Gustavo Petrowho has faced difficulties in implementing his reforms due to the fragmentation of Congress and a difficult fiscal outlook.
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While the government tries to save its reforms, the opposition designs strategies for a 2025 marked by austerity and the start of the presidential and legislative campaigns. To understand what will happen next year, in a legislature that is usually marked by electoral pressures, it is important to put the magnifying glass on four aspects:
1. Juan Fernando Cristo and the reform of the SGP: Although he did not meet the government’s high expectations, the Minister of the Interior is one of the winners of the legislative closure, as he made important progress on key issues. Its main achievement was the reform of the General Participation System (SGP)which, despite criticism about its fiscal impact, is crucial for local leaders and regional leaders, who have considerable influence in Congress. In addition, Cristo has promoted the Law of Competencies and Procedures of Agrarian Jurisdiction, which seeks to decentralize the power of the central government by expanding the autonomy of the regions.
Decentralization will be a key issue in the 2026 presidential elections and the 2027 territorial elections, so Christ’s management will have a deep and lasting impact. As these elections approach, the relationship between the government and regional leaders will be fundamental in defining the political agenda. However, it is possible that Cristo has presidential aspirations, which would generate changes in the cabinet.
2. Reform#as incomplete and the legislative balance of the government: One of the main criticisms of the Petro government has been the lack of progress in its social reforms, such as labor and health reforms. Both face growing resistance, especially in a complex fiscal context and with an economy that has not yet been reactivated. The health reform, for example, only advanced until the first debate in November, while the labor reform did not advance in the third debate.
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Despite some achievements, the government’s legislative balance has been lower. Initiatives such as the Financing Law and political and judicial reforms did not advance due to lack of time and support in Congress. Other projects, such as the creation of Ecominerales and the capitalization of the Manaure Salt Flats, also did not make progress. This reflects a lower legislative effectiveness of the Petro government compared to previous administrations, with only 10% effectiveness in the third term, compared to 33% in the first two.
3. Isolated negotiations and political fragmentation: The government has failed to consolidate a coalition in Congress. The individual negotiation model with each congressman and legislative project turned out to be unsustainable due to the high political fragmentation and the proximity of the 2026 presidential and legislative elections. As these elections approach, congressmen distance themselves from the government, reflecting a loss of political power.
Criticism of the lack of transparency and fiscal management, as well as budget execution problems, have eroded the government’s ability to unite its allies. TO Despite the arrival of Cristo to the government, he failed to build a solid coalition, which reflected fragile majorities in the House of Representatives and support of less than 50% in the Senate.. The failure of the Financing Law underlines the decline of Petro’s power, while political tensions increase in Congress, with parties focused on their electoral agenda.
Another factor that has affected governability is the surgical reform to the Constitution, which would allow transfuguismo (change of party of congressmen) and which has already passed its first round in the House of Representatives. This reform, which would come into force in 2025, would have a direct impact on the 2026 elections, altering the political landscape of Congress.
4. 2026 presidential campaign and the fiscal challenge: The legislative closure has also coincided with a hardening of President Petro’s speech against Congress and the Cortes, reflecting the start of the 2026 presidential campaign. With a popularity of 30%, Petro faces the growing distance from congressmenwho are more focused on electoral campaigns than on supporting the government.
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The fiscal challenge is another of the government’s big problems. The filing of the Financing Law has left its regional investment plans without resources. This becomes a direct criticism of Congress, which the government attributes to a lack of legislative support. Without resources and with politicians focused on the 2026 elections, the year 2025 is a challenge for the president’s legislative agenda.
In addition, 2025 will bring with it the discussion of the Skills Law, crucial for the reform of the GSP, which will test the government’s relationship with regional and local leaders. In parallel, A ministerial shake-up is expected, with key deadlines for those who have electoral aspirations. These factors make the political and legislative landscape even more complex next year.
In conclusion, this closure has made important progress on some fronts, such as the reform of the GSP, but with a balance that reflects the difficulty of consolidating an ambitious reform agenda. Political fragmentation, the lack of a solid coalition and fiscal problems are the main obstacles. As the elections approach, the relationship between the government and Congress worsens, as does the president’s ability to advance his agenda.
Gonzalo Araujo and María Jimena Escandón
ORZA Managing Partners, public and regulatory affairs.
