Summer began this Saturday (21), at 6:20 am (Brasília time), across the entire Southern Hemisphere of the planet with rapid changes in weather conditions, characterized by intense rain and strong winds. The Earth’s position closer to the Sun also makes the days longer than the night and brings high temperatures across the country.
According to the Summer Climate Prognosis, released by the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), this season the phenomenon La Ninawhich usually causes heavy rains in the North and Northeast of Brazil and droughts in the South, will have a shorter duration. The probability of these conditions prevailing is 60% between January and March and progressively drops to 40% between February and April 2025.
“In general, climate forecasts indicate the predominance of rainfall below the climatological average in a large part of the country”, explains Inmet meteorologist, Maytê Coutinho.
The North region is an exception because there will be a predominance of above-average rainfall. In the Northeast, total rainfall between January and March should be lower and in the Central-West and Southeast regions they should be between normal and below average.
More voluminous rains
“Even with the forecast that the total rainfall in January, February and March will be below average in almost the entire region, in the northwest of the Northeast Region there may be more voluminous rains in some periods during the summer, reaching the average in some localities”, ponders Maytê.
In the South region, where volumes are already lower at this time of year, rainfall is expected to remain within the normal range or below normal. In Rio Grande do Sul, mainly, the forecast is for rainfall in the extreme south of the state to be less than 400 millimeters.
For the meteorologist, the regularity of rain in the North and Northeast regions could be even more compromised if the current oceanic conditions persist.
“The warmer waters in the North Tropical Atlantic and colder waters in the South Tropical Atlantic form conditions for the maintenance of the Intertropical Convergence Zone acting north of its average climatological position”, he emphasizes.
According to the Inmet report, such conditions can impact economic activities such as agriculture, energy generation through hydroelectric plants and water replacement to maintain water supply reservoirs at satisfactory levels.
