The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated that the economy Peru will grow only 2.7% next year. This percentage is below the 3.1% estimated to be recorded this year.
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Although the 2025 projection is above the region’s average (2.4%), it represents a lower rate than Argentina (4.3%), Paraguay (3.9%), Venezuela (2.9%), and similar to that of Uruguay. (2.7%).
For ECLAC, this and next year the region’s economies “will be mired in a trap of low capacity to grow,” with a dynamic that depends on private consumption. For this reason, the executive secretary of the commission, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, needs to make some changes.
“To confront the trap of low capacity to grow, it is necessary, on the one hand, to increase the capacity of economies to mobilize financial resources effectively, in order to strengthen resilience against economic fluctuations and, on the other, to strengthen the capacity productive in the medium and long term, through the adoption of productive development policies aimed at increasing productivity, promoting investment in productive capital and generating quality employment,” he commented.
Regarding informal employment, he specified that the average informal employment rate in the region is expected to be 46.7%, which would mean a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the rate registered in 2023. Despite this slight reduction of informality, significant challenges persist in the region in the sense of formalizing employment, which underlines the need to implement effective policies that promote safer and more stable working conditions.
On the other hand, after reaching a maximum in 2022, he specified that inflation in the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean has shown a downward trend. From the 8.2% recorded that year, median regional inflation decreased to 3.7% in December 2023. It is estimated that in 2024 inflation will continue to reduce to reach 3.4%.
Although the median of regional inflation has approached the central value of the target range of many central banks (3%), the projected level for 2024 remains higher than the values recorded before the pandemic.
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