The 2024 budget execution continues to be one of the pending tasks of the government of President Gustavo Petro, and although in the final months it showed a notable recovery, it seems that it will not be enough to avoid a greater delay than in previous years and will leave investment items as the most affected.
According to the accounts of the Ministry of Finance, as of November, $406.7 billion of the $503.7 billion projected for this year have been committed, which is equivalent to 80.8% execution at that level. For previous years, discounting 2020, This line showed a better performance than the current one, generally over 85%.
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On the other hand, obligations reached 71.1% ($358.1 billion) and payments reached $353 billion (70.1%); edges that are also lagging behind previous periods, where they were close to 80% in both indicators. To better explain this data, less than a month before the end of 2024, the government still has $96.8 billion to use from the items approved by Congress.
It is worth remembering that when talking about the General Budget of the Nationappropriations are resources allocated by law for a specific purpose, such as education, health, work or infrastructure, among others. Likewise, commitments are formal agreements that the government acquires to use those appropriations, for example, contracting goods or services, and obligations arise when the commitment is legally formalized, such as the delivery of a good or service.
Budget
That said, payments are the real financial execution, that is, the disbursement of the money corresponding to the obligation that enters the economy and helps boost growth, either through social programs or by injecting resources into the companies that develop the services. projects of the State and is the one that at this moment barely reaches 70%, when in previous years they exceeded at least 75%.
In the review by sectors, it must be said that the best executions are those of Health and social protection (92.1%), equality and equity (91.6%), education (90.2%), information and communications technologies (88.3%), defense and police (86.6%) and the comprehensive system of truth, justice and reparation (86.5%).
Likewise, among those who stand out for not using the Nation’s resources at the rate they are needed, there are treasury (51.1%), sports and recreation (56.5%), Registry (60.1%), information statistics (67.4%), work (68.3%) and intelligence (69.9%); with the lowest levels of general budget execution.
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Investment: the hardest hit
Although the figures show that the Government is stuck with the use of the PGN, but close to the average, the lag of the budget accounts is much more delicate if the investment is reviewed, which, as had been warned, is shaping up to be the great sacrifice in the execution, since only 4 out of every 10 pesos for this objective they have committed themselves to.
The Minhacienda accounts show that of the $100 billion planned for 2024, $78.4 billion (78.4%) have been committed and just over $21 billion remain pending to be allocated. For this same period in 2023, this line was at 81.1% of the execution and for 2022, when Gustavo Petro started his mandate, it was at 88%.
This panorama becomes more complicated when the obligations and payments are reviewed, which are the monies that are finally known to enter the economy, given that only $44.8 billion (44.8%) have been obligated and $44.5 billion paid ( 44.5%); keeping more than $50 billion without effective use, in a context of clear deceleration.
Also applying the vision by sectors in this area, equality and equity (93.4%), health and social protection (92.4%), Prosecutor’s Office (89.4%), the comprehensive system of truth, justice and reparation (88% ) and public employment (87.2%); They have the best investment execution balances with one month left until the end of the year.
Ministry of Finance and Public Credit.
Meanwhile, the judicial branch (55.1%), Presidency of the Republic (55.5%), treasury (55.9%), intelligence (59.9%), interior (60.9%) and statistical information (62.6%); They are the sectors most left in this matter. It is the first time since 2019 that investment obligations do not exceed 50%, with one month left until the end of the year.
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Sub-execution path
Recently, the Bank of Bogotá published a report in which it suggests that this slow performance of budget execution would be the path that the Ministry of Finance will follow to guarantee compliance with the fiscal rule at the end of the term and would go hand in hand with the $30 billion cut that was already announced.
“The authorities announced an additional adjustment in primary spending without Fepc of $30.7 billion compared to the financial plan. Of these resources, $20 billion were supported by Decree 677 of 2024 where the Ministry of Finance froze PGN resources for that amount and the remaining $10.7 billion would be related, again, to an underexecution strategy,” they explained in this regard.
Investment and investments.
In this sense, they recommended not overlooking that although the spending commitments exceed the threshold, the payment obligations, which in the end is the effective spending, have a different trend, so the fiscal goals will depend on the projects that have generated a budget reserve (commitments), are not completed and do not generate a payment obligation.
Government sources stated that this option is not indifferent to those in charge of keeping the accounts and fiscal control of the country, given that factors such as low collection and the slowdown; played against the income of the Nation and have resulted in Essential expenses must be prioritized, so as not to resort so much to debt.
