He Peruin the coming years, will not comply with the fiscal rule that establishes a goal for the deficit annually, according to data from the BBVA Research. In this way, by 2024, the objective is to reach a fiscal deficit of 2.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), however, for the entity it will reach 3.9%.
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For 2025 and 2026, the goal is to reach 2.2% and 1.8% of GDP respectively, however, BBVA Research projects that it will be 2.7% and 2.5%. In this regard, the chief economist of BBVA Research, Hugo Perea, considered that eventually the established goals would have to be “honest and modified.”
“In the scenario that we are foreseeing, we are not anticipating particular measures that will significantly increase collection. Nor are we seeing that there is a willingness to reduce tax expenses,” he assured.
In addition, there is uncertainty about the Petroperú factor and its impact on the deficit. As he explained, there are doubts about the possibility of whether the state company will require a new financial rescue to get out of the crisis in which it finds itself.
“There is uncertainty about whether this company will be able to achieve financial stability that avoids this drain on resources that we have seen in recent months. Financial support from public resources could be better used on other priorities. For the moment, we are being a little skeptical and maintaining that the situation will remain delicate,” he indicated.
Perea recalled that the previous board of directors of the oil company raised a series of proposals related to personnel and expense reduction, asset sales to raise resources, and pointed out that if financial reengineering is not carried out, the public company will once again need State resources to stay afloat.
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On the other hand, BBVA Research modified upwards its economic growth projection for this year, going from 2.9% to 3.1%. However, for 2025 it remained at 2.7%. Hugo Perea explained that in the short term progress rates of more than 4% are not expected.
To have a better result, he commented that there need to be institutional improvements, political stability and an adequate fiscal environment.
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