Given the departure of the Minister of Finance, Ricardo Bonilla, who was considered one of the key players of Gustavo Petro’s Government, the country once again enters a period of uncertainty on the fiscal front. It should be noted that this occurs within the framework of the Congress of the Republic’s failure to approve the 2025 budget and the expectation of the processing of a new tax reform.
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Bonilla, was the second Minister of Finance to leave the portfolio, lasting one year and seven months in office. During his time in the entity, the deficit of the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund was managed, he promoted the pension reform which was approved, even marking the other two major initiatives such as labor and health, among other points.
After learning of the official’s departure, the political environment that existed after this event became clear. One of the first to speak out was the president of the Senate, Efraín Cepeda, who assured that the new member of the cabinet must be quickly appointed to avoid an imbalance in the country’s fiscal outlook.
“That is presidential jurisdiction, there is not much more to add here, but it is the President of the Republic who decides which collaborators he appoints and which ones he really asks to resign. Within his presidential jurisdiction I would only hope that a new minister would be quickly appointed so as not to affect international markets in an issue of instability like that, so we cannot go much further.”mentioned the Conservative Party senator.
With this panorama, Jairo Libreros, professor at the Externado University of Colombia and political analyst, pointed out that the country lost one of the most relevant figures in the head of state’s cabinet.
“The National Government has just lost perhaps the most important helmsman it had from the point of view of the visualization of public policies, the formulation of projects and the financing of the different plans, programs and projects, particularly of social content, Bonilla had the capacity “to understand not only the dimension of the economic fracture that Colombia is suffering, but also enough experience to pilot a ship that at this time demands, not only a new captain in economic terms but someone who sends a message of tranquility to the economic markets,” the expert noted.
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With the above, several parliamentarians spoke out about the official’s departure, that is the case of Ariel Ávila, senator of the Centro Esperanza Green Alliance Party, who assured that the President of the Republic Gustavo Petro had delayed making the decision.
“Chronicle of a death foretold, it was unsustainable, there was no capacity for dialogue between the ministry and Congress after all those scandals, it was publicly unsustainable and the risk rating agencies were going to speak out, so I think it was the obvious thing. The second thing is that the president delayed and how he delayed this will have consequences on the approval of the royalty project whether the financing law is voted on or not.”he mentioned.
On the other hand, Hernán Cadavid, representative of the democratic Center Party, assured that Bonilla must clarify whether illicit money entered the Legislature for the approval of the legislative process.
““You have to tell the country (Bonilla) if there were indeed transactions with sectors of this Congress of the Republic, what reforms were approved under that modality and that the country knows the truth of what is happening,” added the parliamentarian.
Congress of the Republic
César Melgarejo / EL TIEMPO
How are the Government reforms with the departure of Bonilla?
Currently, several bills are being processed in the Congress of the Republic through which it has sought to modify the laws for the Colombian health system, work and even the fiscal situation of the country with the new tax reform.
For the expert, with the departure of the Minister of Finance, Ricardo Bonilla, these initiatives will remain stagnant. He highlighted that they had not even made enough progress due mainly to the scandals in which the official was involved, such as that of the National Risk and Disaster Management Unit.
“These projects were unviable with Minister Bonilla as head of the Treasury, until we have a new Minister of Finance it will be very difficult to reschedule the discussion of these projects or at least for them to have the possibility of being discussed in the Congress of the Republic, the sensitive issue revolves around the fact that we are perhaps two long weeks away from closing the sessions of this first part of the Legislature”mentioned Libreros.
What will happen to the financing law?
As the year drew to a close, the Legislature was preparing a presentation to hold the first debate on the financing law or the new tax reform. So far the speakers of this bill have not been able to agree to present the document that would be debated.
It is worth mentioning that this was presented in order to finance the General Budget of the Nation for next year, for an amount of $523 billion. Mainly due to the fact that the Congress of the Republic did not approve this figure. The idea is that this tax reform finances $12 billion by increasing carbon taxes, advancing compliance with the Fiscal Rule, imposing VAT on virtual betting platforms, also Airbnbs, among others.
“At the moment it is sunk, it is very difficult to find a mechanism that allows for time and consensus creation, to find a mechanism that makes them viable and manages to be approved by the Congress of the Republic, I see it as very difficult for that to happen.”“said the expert.
Meanwhile, Efraín Cepeda, president of the Senate, pointed out that he was not sinking the project, but rather that the document that will be debated in the Legislature has not been filed.
“The only thing I know is that the speakers, not even those from the Government have been able to file that presentation of the financing law, they accuse me of sinking it, but sinking what? If we do not have a filed report and we do not know what we are going to vote on”, mentioned the parliamentarian.
In turn, Jhon Jairo Roldán, Senator of the Liberal Party, assured that Bonilla’s departure will undoubtedly affect the process of the National Government’s tax reform.
“I regret the departure of the Minister, he is a person who has been dedicated since he arrived, who has done things well, I regret this decision that the President has made to ask him to resign. The financing law already has some objections, some partisan positions and I believe that the departure of the minister does not do any good for this law, let’s wait between this week and the next, which is the end of the financing law.”said the senator.
How is the atmosphere in Congress?
According to Jairo Libreros, professor at the Externado University of Colombia and political analyst, with this change in the cabinet in the Legislature, victory is declared because many of the parties expected the departure of the official.
“In one way or another there was a consensus between the different groups, the permanence of Minister Bonilla in the Treasury was unsustainable, they can claim victory because they managed to take away the maneuverability of the Minister of Finance and the National Government with different political control activities and a slowed down agenda. , very surely there will be voices criticizing, we have heard statements where the statements of different people who are criminally linked to the investigation into the risk unit scandal are distorted, but what is clear is that the Congress of the “The Republic demanded and considered appropriate a change in the Treasury portfolio,” added the expert.
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In turn, the expert mentioned that the labor and health reforms will probably sink because they have until June 20, 2025, which is the end of the second legislature, to have approval in all the debates, he clarified that If consensus is not achieved, they probably will not come out.
“They still have a deadline, they have time for discussion, but the central issue revolves around creating consensus to reach votes that allow these initiatives to be carried out. If the National Government is not willing and the opposition is not willing to sacrifice points, I think these initiatives could be frustrated. ”, the political analyst pointed out.
LEIDY RUIZ
Portfolio Journalist
