BBVA Research modified its growth projection upwards economy Peruvian economy, going from 2.9% to 3.1%, revealed the chief economist for Peru of the financial entity, Hugo Perea. This change mainly reflects that the economic expansion in the third quarter (3.8% year-on-year) was greater than expected.
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He indicated that the release of pension funds, the decrease in inflation, the recovery of the formal labor market, the improvement in business confidence, and the strong dynamism of public investment were the main factors that supported economic activity among July and September.
Likewise, Hugo Perea pointed out that the growth projection for 2025 remains at 2.7%. In that year, the policies of the incoming administration in the US will begin to be deployed and the positive impact of the release of pension funds will dissipate.
However, he specified that private spending will find support in positive business confidence, financial conditions that will become more flexible, and in which the construction of major infrastructure projects will begin, in mining (Antamina Replenishment, Tía María, Zafranal), irrigation (Chavimochic III), and transportation (Vía Expresa Sur de Lima).
On the other hand, it projected a deficit of 3.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, with a tendency to decrease from now on, levels that will however be higher than the ceilings established in the fiscal rule.
Regarding prices, BBVA Research predicts that they will advance 2.2% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025, and 2.6% in 2026, a level that it estimates as long-term. All projections remain within the Central Reserve Bank’s target range (between 1% and 3%).
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