In the second half of 2025, inflationary outbreaks could occur that would put the monetary policy of the Bank of the Republic back into the discussion. which by that time would already have two other co-directors appointed by the Government of Gustavo Petro.
(Read here: Energy inflation in Latin America fell again in September)
This was considered by César Pabón, executive director of economic research at Corficolombiana, who recalled that in In the first part of next year the Executive will be able to appoint two members of the board.
For the analyst, the reductions in food and regulated prices could run outwhile the depreciation of the exchange rate and the high indexation of services would put upward pressure on prices again, bringing inflation closer to 4% towards the end of next year.
“In this context, we project a closing Monetary Policy Rate close to 7.0%, above market expectations, which are around 6%,” he commented.
(See here: What will happen to the 2025 minimum wage in Colombia, according to ChatGPT?)
Pabón said that in 2024, Colombia will experience one of the steepest declines in inflation since the adoption of the inflation targeting scheme in 2001. Annual inflation slowed to 5.4% in October, from 9.1% at the beginning of the year, and assured that it is projected that it will end the year at 5%, its lowest level in three years. By 2025, it is projected to reach the minimum in June (of 3.6%), placing it within the range.
Inflation
EFE
During the Corficolombiana perspectives forum, Light at the end of the tunnel?, Pabón said that gross domestic product growth is projected of 1.8% by the end of 2024 and 2.5% by 2025, but “Uncertainty remains a constant and unexpected factors can alter the outcome.”
Pabón said that the price of the dollar in Colombia would remain on average at $4,344 during the first half of 2025, with greater volatility compared to 2024. In the second half, a depreciation of 0.5% could be seen, at an average of $4,367. He warned that the forecasts for 2025 are subject to greater uncertainty than usual due to factors that increase risk aversion in the markets.
HOLMAN RODRÍGUEZ MARTÍNEZ
Portfolio Journalist
