The dollar in December will continue to grow, but at a slower pace, experts warn.
He dollar has experienced significant fluctuations during the year, impacting Colombian families linked to the currency market. This behavior has generated direct effects on product prices importedincreasing uncertainty among consumers.
At the beginning of December, the price of dollar In exchange houses it is quoted with a purchase value of $4,120 and a selling price of $4,270. These figures are updated daily according to the sampling carried out in different establishments.
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Dollar outlook towards the end of 2024
The price of dollar In Colombia it continues to be a relevant issue, influenced by local and international factors that keep the exchange rate above $4,300. Experts predict that the volatility will continue to characterize the behavior of the currency for the remainder of the year.
According to the Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences of the University of San Buenaventura, the policies of Gustavo Petro’s Government generate uncertainty in the markets. Key reforms under discussion, such as tax 2.0labor and health, could negatively influence foreign investment, putting upward pressure on the price of the US currency.
The deficit in tax collection increases fiscal risks, raising tax levels dollar. By the end of November, the rate could range between $4,339 and $4,405and in December an average close to $4,324according to Héctor Julián Sánchez, dean of the aforementioned university.
Sánchez highlights that an acceleration in the reduction of interest rates by the Bank of the Republic could stabilize the price of dollar partially. However, the effects would be gradual, keeping scenarios of a significant reduction in the exchange rate distant.
At the international level, various elements add pressure to the behavior of the dollar in Colombia:
- Monetary policy in the United States: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions create uncertainty, while the leadership of the new president, Donald Trump, raises expectations.
- Geopolitical conflicts: The intensification of the war between Russia and Ukraine, together with the conflict between Israel and Hamas, affects oil prices, indirectly impacting the currency market.
- Actions of other central banks: The measures of the Central Bank of Japan also influence, as does the indirect impact of the election of Claudia Sheinbaum as president of Mexico on the price of the Colombian peso.
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Projections for 2025
According to estimates from international financial entities, the dollar could range between $4,100 and $4,420:
- $4,100: Ebury and Barclays.
- $4,135: Rabobank, RBC Capital Markets and TD Securities.
- $4,200: Wells Fargo Bank, Bank Julius Baer and Mitsubishi Financial Group.
- $4,250: JP Morgan and BNP Paribas.
- $4,350: Santander Bank.
- $4,420: BBVA.
The end of 2024 will be marked by a high volatility in the price of dollar. Political decisions, both national and international, will continue to be decisive. For investors and citizens, understanding these dynamics will be essential to making sound financial decisions.
