According to these projections, based on data from 29 countries where 85% of last year’s production took place, world wine production in 2024 is estimated to be between 227 and 235 million hectoliters (mhl), that is, its volume. lowest harvested since 1961 (220 mhl).
If confirmed, the 2024 figures would be equivalent to a global drop of 2% compared to 2023 (237 mhl) and 13% in relation to the average of the previous ten years.
“Climate challenges in both hemispheres are, once again, the main causes of this drop in global production volume,” explained the OIV, which notes that most regions of the world have been affected.
With 41 mhl, Italy once again occupies the position of the world’s leading producer, overtaking France, which registers the largest decrease from one year to the next among the different producing countries (-23%, up to 36.9 mhl).
Spain remains in third place, with 33.6 mhl, which represents a slight improvement compared to 2023.
The United States, the fourth largest producer in the world, recorded an average harvest of 23.6 mhl, slightly lower than that of 2023.
Volatility
In the southern hemisphere, volumes will be the lowest in the last two decades, due to poor weather conditions.
In Chile, the leading South American producer, a volume is expected to be 15% lower than in 2023 and 21% below the five-year average.
This decline is attributed to a late harvest due to an unusually cold spring and droughts in some wine regions.
With an estimated 2.7 million hectoliters, wine production in Brazil could also register a decline.
In contrast, Argentina is expected to produce 10.9 mhl in 2024, reflecting a significant recovery with an increase of 23% compared to 2023, although still 4% below the five-year average.
Previously, these regions (around 20% of the world total) tended to offset the overall balance when the northern hemisphere faced difficulties, the director of the OIV, New Zealander John Barker, explained to AFP, highlighting a “general increasing volatility in recent years.” years”.
“The impacts of climate change are accumulating. Worrying about the climate and sustainability is crucial for the future,” he insisted, also pointing out that, although this year’s harvests were reduced, they are “of quality.”
Consumption down
“We are clearly in a difficult moment for many in the sector, a moment of change and uncertainty,” stressed the director of the OIV, an organization that brings together 51 States and is sometimes nicknamed the “UN of wine.”
However, “change is a constant” in this area, Barker highlighted when presenting to the press the statistics that collect 100 years of wine cultivation and trade.
The sector “experienced significant transformations in its production methods, market structures […] and consumption modes. These were positive in terms of value and scope,” he stressed.
But it doesn’t all come down to the weather. “Understanding changes in consumer behavior and the position of wine in society” is another major challenge, Barker warned.
In fact, in the first half of 2024, global wine consumption fell again due to changes in consumer preferences: -3.9% in volume compared to the previous year, and 20.1% less compared to the first half of 2024. 2019, according to the London-based global wine market analysis company IWSR.
