Banxico’s forecasts are below what the Ministry of Finance estimated in the preparation of the 2025 Economic Package. The government expects the Mexican economy to grow between 2 and 3%.
Although Banxico raised its growth forecasts, the risks have a downward bias.
Among the risks that the central bank highlights is that despite the dynamism that the United States economy has shown, its growth will be lower than expected, to the detriment of Mexico’s external demand.
It also highlights that if the current environment of uncertainty related to the policies that could be implemented in the United States, particularly commercially, or with idiosyncratic factors intensifies, and that this adversely affects external demand and consumption and investment spending in Mexico .
For 2025, Banxico maintained its perspective that the economy will have growth of 1.2% and by 2026 the economy is expected to grow at rates of 1.8%.
“The forecasts for 2025 also incorporate the expectation of lower dynamism in private investment than previously anticipated as a reflection of the greater uncertainty associated with external and internal factors. Likewise, and in the opposite direction, they consider the higher public spending announced in the General Criteria of Economic Policy (CGPE) 2025 with respect to that previously foreseen in the pre-CGPE 2025”.
The good news does not extend to formal employment: Banxico estimates that fewer formal jobs will be created in 2024 and 2025.
For this year, it expects that between 250,000 and 350,000 formal jobs will be created from a range of 410,000 and 550,000 that it estimated last August.
