Tariffs on its food shipments could cause jarring financial and operational ripple effects on American supplies and highlight how dependent the nation has become on its neighbors to feed its population, economists said.
Trump said Monday that he would sign an executive order on his first day in office in January that would impose a 25% tariff on all products that come to the United States from Canada and Mexico to stop the flow of illegal drugs and migrants to its borders.
American consumers would feel the impact at grocery stores and restaurants, with items out of stock, Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, said Tuesday.
“We would see fewer items overall in the produce section,” Jungmeyer said. “Restaurants would have to reconfigure their menus, perhaps putting fewer fruits and vegetables or decreasing portions.”
About two-thirds of all U.S. vegetable imports and half of all fruits and nuts come from Mexico, according to the USDA: nearly 90% of its avocados, up to 35% of its orange juice and 20% of its their strawberries.
Avocado exports to the United States have soared 48% since 2019, according to US trade data, as consumers increasingly put them in salads and sandwiches.
The U.S. market accounts for about 80% of Mexico’s total avocado exports, USDA data shows, a trade valued at $3 billion last year.
“It would generate an inflationary spiral,” said Alfredo Ramírez, governor of Michoacán, Mexico’s main avocado-producing state.
“Demand would not drop,” he said. “What would increase are costs and prices. This would bring us an increase in inflation and direct repercussions for consumers.”
Even margarita cocktails could be affected. Beer and tequila imports together accounted for nearly a quarter of Mexican imports of agricultural products into the United States last year.
U.S. imports of Mexican tequila and mezcal – both used to make cocktails, such as the margarita – totaled $4.66 billion in 2023, up 160% from 2019.
Migration of pigs and cattle
Trump’s plan could also stop the migration of more than a million cows exported by Mexico across the border each year to become part of the U.S. beef supply.
American producers have trimmed their herds in recent years, driving up beef prices.
They could benefit if the tariffs lead to fewer livestock and beef imports, said Bill Bullard, executive director of the United Cattlemen’s Legal Action Fund of America.
The tariffs could also further increase meat prices for American consumers, although Bullard said meat importers and processors could absorb some additional costs.
“We look forward to the tariffs,” he said. “It will help level the playing field for our domestic producers.”
In the north, tariffs could also disrupt shipments of cattle, dairy cattle and hogs between the United States and Canada, potentially affecting producers in both countries.
