According to official figures, Peru has 9.8 million Peruvians in poverty and with an average economic growth of around 3% per year it is not enough to reduce the precariousness in which our compatriots live.
The former Minister of Economy and Finance Luis Carranza He maintained that we have not been able to do things well to reduce poverty, despite the fact that there was a plan that could lead the country to achieve per capita income equal to that of Chile. This economy has a poverty incidence rate of around 6.5%.
“That is a scandal. In 2011, together with Julio Luque, we carried out a purposeful agenda to improve the quality of life of Peruvians, but it was not applied,” Carranza said during his presentation: “Presentation and delivery of a shared vision of joint action to rebuild the future of all the Peruvians”, in CADE Executives 2024.
However, the economist indicated that Peru has time to change this situation. He specified that, if we carry out a series of plans that allow us to grow 7% a year, by 2033 we could have a GDP per inhabitant the size of Chile, by 2040 the size of Spain and Japan, and in 20 years we would be like Germany and Australia.
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What is needed?
According to Carranza, a joint vision is required that allows Peru, for example, to be the logistics hub of the trade relationship between Asia and South America. He explained that this is viable if the growth that our exports have had in the Chinese market is taken into account.
According to Carranza, in 2001, China received only 6% of Peruvian exports. Meanwhile, in 2023, this participation increased to 36%. And to this, it must be taken into account, according to the economist, that China is the main trading partner of South America with a participation as a recipient of exports of 25% and there is the opportunity for this commercial flow to pass through Peruvian lands.
“Twenty years ago our geographical position did not matter at all. Today it is critical to increase that level of importance, but you have to know how to take advantage,” Carranza said.
Chance
Likewise, Carranza stated that Peru has enormous potential in two sectors that have very high labor productivity: agriculture and mining. “Job generation in agriculture is essential.”
The former head of the MEF stated that the “miracle” achieved in said extractive sector has been possible with only 250 thousand hectares, but in 10 or 15 years we could have triple the agricultural area, therefore, the impact on employment is fundamental.
“For every two hectares, two direct jobs are generated and for every direct job, four indirect jobs are generated. In the case of mining, today we could be the main exporter of copper in the world, but we cut our own wings,” he concluded.
The need for an agenda
For Carranza, taking advantage of the opportunities that the country has depends on an agenda that allows the investment projects that exist in the mining and agroindustrial sector, as well as other sectors, to be carried out.
Carranza said that the important thing about mining is not only the mining companies, but also the mining suppliers.
“In Arequipa, without any intervention from the State, 1,000 mining supplier companies have been formed. In the south, more than 2,000 supplier companies in this sector have opened,” he indicated.
Finally, he stated that achieving our prosperity depends on building that path together and solving critical problems.
“We can have growth rates of 6 and 7% without any problem and eliminate extreme poverty and reduce poverty below 5%,” he concluded.
