Cifra, a renowned public opinion consultancy, released on Thursday its most recent study ahead of the runoff scheduled for this Sunday, where they will face Álvaro Delgado and Valeria Ripoll of the National Party, against Yamandú Orsi and Carolina Cosse, representatives of the Frente Amplio. This survey delves into the profile of undecided voters, whose information had already been presented earlier this week on the Telemundo channel.
The director of FigureMariana Pomiés, highlighted that the current scenario shows a “technical tie” between the two formulas. According to the study data, 47.0% of those surveyed would favor Orsi, while 46.4% would support Delgado. Furthermore, it is reported that 6.6% of citizens are still undecided regarding their choice, contemplating the possibility of voting blank or canceling their vote.
Pomiés emphasized that, given the margin of error that is +/- 3.1% for each formula, as well as +/- 1.5% in the case of undecided people, it is not possible to determine with certainty who could come out. favored in this runoff. The analyst also indicated that in past projections, Orsi’s advantage was significantly greater, however, this margin has been reducing as the voting date approaches.
Changes in voting intentions
The survey reveals that of the voters who lean towards Orsi, 3.5% are likely to change their decisionwhile 4.5% have expressed a possible change towards the Frente Amplio candidate. In terms of firm vote, that translates into 39.0% unconditional support for Orsi. On the other hand, among those who support Delgado, 4.1% indicate that they could reconsider their election and 5.4% have expressed their intention to vote in favor of the Republican Coalition candidate. This means that the firm vote for Delgado stands at 36.9%.
It should be noted that Álvaro Delgado has the support of various leaders of the Republican Coalition, which includes the Colorado Party, represented by Andrés Ojeda; Open Town Hall, with Guido Manini Ríos; the Independent Party, headed by Pablo Mieres; and the Constitutional Environmentalist Party under the leadership of Eduardo Lust.
The research carried out by Cifra was carried out between November 14 and 20, which provides a key temporal context to understand current trends in the Uruguayan electorate and anticipate the dynamics that will be experienced during election day next Sunday.
