The CERES Leading Index (ILC) increased for the second consecutive month and did so by 0.2% in Februarywhich indicates that 2022 reproduces positive signs, which are better at the end of 2021. In order to confirm that the trend in activity is once again on the rise, we must wait for the data for March, the document explained.
Also, along the same lines, the Diffusion Index in February was 60%which indicates that more than half of the variables that make up the ILC registered positive rates in the month.
This indicator is complementary to the Leading Index and measures the amplitude of the support base of its monthly movement, since it considers the proportion of the ILC variables with positive rates in each month.
The ILC is a leading indicator of the level of activity, which is used to predict changes in the economic cycle; it does not allow quantitative projections to be made on the levels of economic activity, but is designed to give signals on the sign of the evolution of general economic activity.
The engine of agriculture
According to Ceres, the agricultural sector continues to be one of those driving the country’s economic recovery. Beyond adverse weather conditions, a very strong demand mainly from China makes them register very good pricesExplain.
The value of the ton of exported beef has risen since December, and is 32% above the beginning of 2021. In turn, in the last four months the highest prices in the type steer are given. This price level generated an increase in supply, which is expressed in the high levels of slaughter.
January was the ninth consecutive month with more than 200,000 cattle slaughtered. The projections of the Chamber of the Cold Storage Industry is to close 2022 with a slaughter of 2.7 million cattle. Sheep meat shows a good start to 2022, after a good 2021. In January, 9.7% more was slaughtered than in January a year ago.
On the other hand, pulp exports in January were (in dollars) 16% higher than January 2021, explained by the increase in the export price (+47%).
