Financial market expectations related to inflation and exchange rates are on the rise. Those relating to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the basic interest rate (Selic) remain stable, according to the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (11) by the Central Bank.
In the case of the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considered the country’s official inflation, the bulletin has shown expectations of an increase for six weeks, reaching 4.62% for the close of 2024. A week ago, the expectation was for that the year would close with inflation of 4.59%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 4.39%.
For 2025, the expectations presented in the weekly bulletin are that the year will close with inflation of 4.1%, above the projections presented in the last four weeks, which ranged from 3.96% to 4.03%. The market projects, for 2026, that the year will close with an IPCA of 3.65%. It is the second week in a row of increases.
The estimate for 2024 remains above the ceiling of the inflation target to be pursued by the monetary authority, of 3% for this year, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points up or down. In other words, the lower limit is 1.5% and the upper limit is 4.5%.
From 2025 onwards, the continuous target system set at 3% will come into force, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down.
Exchange rate and GDP
Expectations related to the value of the dollar increased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching R$5.55. A week ago, the financial market projected that the North American currency would close 2014 at R$5.50; and four weeks ago, R$5.40. For subsequent years, the market projects that the dollar will close at R$5.48 in 2025; and R$5.40 in 2026.
Forecasts for the country’s growth remain stable, which was somewhat expected, given that we are already in November. As a result, the financial market maintains GDP growth expectations at 3.10%, which is the sum of all the wealth produced in the country. For 2025 and 2026, expectations are for growth of 1.94% and 2%, respectively.
Selic
Financial market expectations for the basic interest rate (Selic) at the end of the year also remain stable, at 11.75%. This percentage has remained stable for six consecutive weeks. For 2025, the year is expected to close with a Selic of 11.5%; and for 2026, by 10%.
