There is less and less left until 2024 ends and different study centers are already making their projections regarding the performance of the Colombian economy for 2025.
The stock broker Stocks & Securities presented the Economic Outlook 2025 to take into account when understanding the economy and finances in which the Colombian economy would be involved or affected, and that would move in the next year.
– The dollar will be king again: The atmosphere of volatility due to the result of the elections in the United States and which leaves Donald Trump as president-elect, added to the trajectory of global monetary policy, can influence the direction of the dollar in 2025.
The exchange rate could be negotiated at an average of $4,180 and perhaps reach a maximum of $4,600 in the worst case scenario (sanctions from the Trump government), a downgrade in the country’s rating or another adverse effect, which is not contemplated for now. “We do not see an exchange rate above $5,000, as in the past”says Wilson Tovar, manager of Economic Research at Acciones & Valores.
Dollar.
– Inflation will continue to fall: Acciones & Valores estimates that inflation in Colombia will close in 2024 at 5.5% and in 2025 at 3.6%, although with risks on the horizon such as exchange volatility, a rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and adjustments in public services and transportation. It must be remembered that annual inflation in October was 5.41%.
– If there is disagreement between employers and workers to define the minimum wage, the decision made by the Government will end up being decisive in the course of inflation and therefore interest rates. The Actions & Securities model points to a maximum increase of 8%, that is, $1,404,000, although business owners fear that this increase will reach 10%, which would be detrimental to job creation.
– The interest rate of the Bank of the Republic could reach 6% in 2025: If you are thinking about acquiring debt or refinancing a loan, there is good news: the brokerage firm expects that the central bank will continue lowering interest rates, like other countries in the region. For 2024, a closure of 9.25% is expected, and 6% for 2025. In October, the Issuer left the rate at 9.75%.
Interest rate
iStock
– Colombia will grow above other Latin American nations: While in 2024 the Colombian economy would grow at 2.1%, reflecting an improvement in household spending, in 2025 growth of 3% is expected, driven by lower financial costs and more favorable commercial dynamics.
– It’s time for cheap stocks: Despite the Colombian market’s rebound during 2024, local stocks are still far below their fundamental value. For example, titles such as Grupo de Energía de Bogotá, Bancolombia, Grupo Argos, Corficolombiana, Davivienda and Mineros are emerging as attractive options in 2025. From the Colombian Global Market managed by the Colombian Stock Exchange, the stock of Nubank is included due to its potential growth via clients.
– Ecopetrol action will be subject to the fluctuations of oil prices and elections: Its price will depend on the movement of crude oil prices and the news regarding extractive policy in Colombia. Despite the reductions in its target price by international brokerage houses, the firm considers that the fair value of the security would be $2,120 per share. In that sense, Acciones & Valores’ position is neutral towards the title, that is, it does not recommend buying or selling.
Ecopetrol
Ecopetrol
– Remittances will continue to be an important flow of foreign currency: For the following year, good performance is expected in the growth of shipments of Colombian workers abroad, although the prospects will largely depend on global economic stability, as well as the immigration policy of the president-elect, Donald Trump. By 2024, remittances are expected to reach USD 11.5 billion
– The fiscal situation remains in the spotlight: The delay in tax collection and the uncertainty due to the approval of the Financing Law and the reform of the General Participation System (SGP) have been reflected in the country’s risk perception; Some experts have anticipated downgrade decisions that could affect markets.
– The electoral environment will be decisive: The electoral context in the second half of 2025 will be decisive in strengthening the behavior of the markets and the exchange rate.
PORTFOLIO
