How to get out of the current crossroads

Carlos Guevara Rodríguez

Evo Morales is set to regain power. To achieve this you must be able to present yourself as a candidate. The government of Luis Arce blocks his way by denying him this claim. Therefore, if he cannot force the government to make his candidacy a reality, he would have to force his change. This is not a deduction made on the basis of evidence, the same representatives of the MAS evista have asked for Arce’s resignation.

It will be said that Morales is denied this claim with just reason, given that the constitution prohibits it, but let’s not be naive. The same characters who now support power supported Morales’ illegal nomination in 2019. In vain now the archist MAS tears its clothes with legal and moral objections to Morales’ candidacy, making itself the champion of legality and morality, when in the past he had no qualms about violating both under Morales’ command. It is not legality that interests them, much less immoral behavior, but power; Morales’ candidacy would take away their votes.

If there is something in which Morales has excelled, it is in his ability to make the country ungovernable. The combination of a population blindly loyal to the Commander and its geographical location make it possible, as in the past, to put the government and the country in check. This action leads to clashes and loss of life. Actually, that is its purpose.

The Arce government is therefore presented with a dilemma. On the one hand, to break the strangulation of the blockades, current or future, would have to risk the bloodshed resulting from the use of force by the Armed Forces.

On the other hand, the government cannot maintain a situation of food and fuel shortages, strangulation of the economy and restriction of free movement indefinitely. If he does not intervene with the blockades, he would eventually have to admit to the country that he simply can no longer guarantee peace and normality, which is why he would have to resign. Will there be a third way?

There could be a solution to the current confrontation that avoids a government resignation or an escalation of violence, both with unpredictable and probably disastrous results. This solution would involve settling the struggle for power through the ballot box instead of it being imposed by force.

This solution would consist of allowing Morales’ candidacy and suspending, not annulling, the proceedings against him for statutory rape. It is true that morally and legally Morales would be disqualified from being a candidate again. But his candidacy in this case would serve the national interest.

Allowing his candidacy would avoid further damage to the economy and an even greater increase in prices with the consequent harm to the population. The loss of life and the deepening of the social and geographical divisions that threatened in November 2019 to break the constitutional order would be avoided. By ensuring that there is no breakdown of the constitutional order, it would also ensure that elections are held in 2025. A new government emerging from the popular will would have the necessary legitimacy to face the most urgent problems facing the country, such as the critical economic situation and an illegitimate and failed judiciary. None of this can be achieved if there is a significant sector of the population that would feel excluded if its Commander cannot intervene in the next elections, for which it would be driven, led by the Commander’s obsession with power and thirst for revenge, to try to destroy what remains of the democratic system and its institutions.

But what happens if Morales wins the elections? While it is not impossible, it is not likely that this result will occur. It is more likely that Morales will lose, even in the first round. Morales has suffered great wear and tear since he fled in November 2019. Right now the blockade he is carrying out is highly unpopular in the cities, even with sectors of the population that previously supported him. These sectors of the population are not, as in the rural area, unconditional to Morales. It is foreseeable that to the extent that they hold Morales responsible for the increase in the prices of the family basket, to that same extent they will abandon him in time to vote, at least in a large proportion; Not to mention the deterioration of his image as a result of the accusations of statutory rape.

Two other results of Morales’ candidacy make it clearly in the national interest. First, Morales’ candidacy, by dividing the MAS vote, makes the defeat of the MAS more likely. Second, the defeat of Morales, especially if it occurs in the first round, would take away his strength and legitimacy to such an extent that he could no longer have the capacity to make the country ungovernable. Already in the second round, it is foreseeable that an anti-MAS candidate will face a MAS candidate worn down by price increases, shortages of fuel and dollars and in general the deterioration of the economy and corrupt management, all of which can be attributed to the long management of the MAS in any of its versions. On the other hand, the anti-MAS candidate will be able to unify the opposition in its diversity with the flag of: the MAS, never again.