The presidential campaigns of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump have intensified their strategies to approach the Latino vote in the US, which could be decisive given the close results expected in the polls.
Text: Antoni Belchi
Just over a week before the presidential elections in the United States, both the Democratic and Republican campaigns continue with their strategies to captivate the vote of the Latino community, one of the fastest growing in the country and considered crucial in the elections. which are forecast very tight.
Soni Batista, a Puerto Rican in her early 50s who lives in South Florida, had left everything she had planned this Sunday and met with other Latino volunteers from the campaign of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. Their plan was to participate in a caravan that will tour several neighborhoods in Miami-Dade County to encourage the Hispanic vote on November 5.
“It is very important that we go to vote because for many of us it has been very difficult to come to this country and obtain the right to vote. So we have to mobilize,” he told VOA while holding a sign with the phrase “We are not going back” in English.
About 5 kilometers from where Batista was, a group of Republican supporters gathered at Café Versailles, an emblematic site for the Cuban exile in Miami. The group of supporters of former Republican President Donald Trump gathered at the site with “Trump 2024” flags and the campaign slogan “Let’s Make America Great Again.”
“I am Cuban and I am going to vote for Trump because I believe it is the best for this country. We have been suffering for four years with a government that has done nothing and has plunged it even further with inflation,” commented Nairobi García, a resident of the city of Miami, Florida, since 2010.
The trend of the Latino vote in the US
The Hispanic community has become a decisive factor for both parties, since a small number of votes could tip the balance towards one side or the other in these elections.
A study by Florida International University (FIU) concluded that although the Latino vote leans mostly towards Democrats (44%), there has recently been a shift towards Republican options (32%) by this segment of population.
“The first thing to say is that [el voto latino] It is predominantly Democratic, but we are seeing a trend of that vote shifting towards the Republican Party, particularly in Florida, where Donald Trump may win the majority of the Latino vote. We are also seeing it in states where the so-called Sun Belt is, and which is crucial for the electoral contest,” said political analyst Thomas Kennedy in reference to the states of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and a part of Texas.
That is why both campaigns are joining efforts to focus on the undecided states or swing states, which could hold the key to entering the White House.
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“In states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, which is where there may be a variation of between 2 and 4%, and this could define the election depending on the participation to a greater or lesser extent of Latino voters,” he explained to VOA Eduardo Gamarra, professor of political science at FIU.
The economy, a key factor for the Latino vote
Policies on abortion or migration have been part of the agenda of this electoral campaign. However, the economic issue and the management of inflation is what most worries American voters, according to a study by the Gallup consulting firm.
52% of the country’s voters believe that the economic situation is worse than four years ago. “Rental prices are higher than ever. Prices in supermarkets, although inflation has gone down, are still very expensive. In other words, the daily life of the American is more difficult today than it was in 2016 and until 2020, before the pandemic,” admitted Kennedy, a liberal analyst.
The economy has also become a top concern for Latino voters. This panorama, added to the fear of a recession, could benefit Donald Trump, who is presenting himself as the candidate capable of reversing this scenario.
“Donald Trump is promoting a campaign in which he says that we are going to return you to my four years, but without the pandemic. It is also telling you that you will be able to return to buy your car, you will be able to buy your house,” explained Frank Rodríguez, political analyst and member of the Academy of the History of Cuba in Exile.
From the Democratic ranks they admit the lack of effective communication to transmit some achievements of the administration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, such as the rescue plan after the pandemic or the forgiveness of student debt.
“They have improved the economy, they have done good things but they have not been able to capitalize on their achievements and campaign well on those achievements,” acknowledged Thomas Kennedy.
So, as several members who are part of Kamala Harris’ campaign explain to VOA, the Democratic Party is trying to straighten out its strategy in this matter so that there is no leakage of votes.
“That is why Kamala Harris is proposing proposals for those people who want to buy a home for the first time, people who want to open businesses, they are very attractive attractive aid,” recalled Liz Rebeca Alarcón, a political communication strategist who is collaborating with the Democratic campaign. .
The latest polls
A poll by the Center for Political Studies at Harvard University gave Republican Trump a slight advantage over Democrat Harris among those voters – without making distinction by their origin – who had voted early in the hinge states, those whose results are uncertain and can lean to one side or the other.
But it does not necessarily have to mean a defeat for the Democrats because, according to the same electoral study, Harris still maintains an 8-point advantage over Trump among voters who have already started voting in all the states of the country.
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