The Dane presented this Friday – October 18 – the most recent balance of the Economic Monitoring Index, with a cut-off to August, in which it is clear that although the country continues to grow and the risks of recession are completely ruled out, therefore less in the short term, the steps forward that are being taken are increasingly shorter and The economic slowdown or deceleration is increasingly evident.
According to the data reported by the statistical authority, the ISE for the eighth month of the year showed an annual variation of 2%; reference that, although it marks a rebound compared to the 0.1% of the same period in 2023, also translates into a slight contraction compared to the 3.8% reached during July, whose good pace was apparently once again a flower of a day.
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On the other hand, if we keep in mind that market expectations pointed to records in a range of between 2.1% and 2.3% in the annual variation, it is clear that the results were below expectations, putting A slowdown is evident that is once again hitting various sectors of the economy.
An example of these projections is in the recent analysis of Corficolombiana, who expected an annual growth of 2.3%; that For them, although it is still positive, it reflects a slight slowdown that does not come as a surprise if you take into account that there are still important lines of the economy, such as industry and construction, that continue to show red numbers.
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“The sectoral figures revealed at the beginning of the week showed mixed results in which activity in the primary sector as a whole grew by 3.5% annually (vs. 7.5% in July), reflecting the advance in coffee production, the slaughter of livestock and the still favorable conditions of agricultural supply,” these economists indicated.
From Corfi they asked to keep in mind that the Industrial Production Index showed that mines and quarries are still in the doldrums, with annual declines in coal (-13.8%) and a decline in oil extraction (-1.2%); since these data are also signs that things are not progressing at the pace they should.
They lost strength again
In the analysis by sectors, it must be said that agriculture and public administration once again showed their face and influenced the growth achieved for August. However, it must also be said that there is an unfavorable dynamic in which, for example, primary activities went from growing 7.4% in July to the already mentioned 3.5%.
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Likewise, in tertiary activities, led by the financial sector and public administration and defense, the annual variation achieved was 2.8%, with which this line marks a notable rebound compared to the 0.1% in August 2023. ; but it languishes compared to the 8.3% of July 2024. These two indicators have been characterized throughout the year by showing instability in which they achieve good growth, but also regress or contract strongly.
In the case of financial activities, since its return to positive territory in April of this year, the dynamics for companies in the sector have been marked by short but constant growth, which not only returns favorable records, but also allows you to achieve six months of good results.
Economic slowdown
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It should be noted that at this point the effects of the ‘pact’ are not yet reflected. for the credit’ that started in September and its first balance was known this week, so its impact on the market could be better seen in the next Dane report.
Modest steps
For analyst Diego Montañez-Herrera, it is undeniable that there is growth in the economy, however, the question arises as to whether the observed pace is sufficient for the country to recover and leave the slowdown behind, since “although the ISE grew 2.0 % in August, the accumulated growth in the first 8 months of 2024 is only 1.92% compared to the same period of 2023.”
“This reflects that there are still sectors in negative territory such as industry; construction with -1.7% and information and communications that had a variation of -1.1%,” said this economist, for whom attention should be paid to this reality, since they are two important drivers for economic development.
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Taking these latest data as a reference, it must be said that the bad grade in the Economic Monitoring Index came from secondary activities that returned to negative territory and in August varied -1.4% and together with professional and scientific activities, which fell -0.1%; They were the only two sectors that retreated.
Although there are important challenges to face, President Gustavo Petro He celebrated the results of the Dane and maintained that they are the result of the commitment that the National Government has made to change the sources of development in the regions for less polluting ones that go hand in hand with the change they are looking for.
Construction
Óscar Berrocal / Portfolio
“The good news for the Colombian people does not stop. In August, the economy grew 2.02%. The agricultural figures, with a growth of 8.5%, show us the direction towards the new Colombian economy, based on the productivity of our countryside,” said the head of state in his X account; although the official data for agriculture is 3.5% as an annual variation.
Finally, with trade growing at 3% annually for the eighth month of the year, it should be noted that as had been predicted by economic study centers, consumption is giving a break to the growth dynamics, leveraged by the fall in interest rates and inflation, a factor that must be urgently taken advantage of to move the country forward and put an end to the slowdown once and for all.
