Claudia Sheinbaum’s first day was full of symbolic gestures, but also announcements. I liked the greeting to Minister Norma Piña and, optimistically, I want to put it as a good sign for the implementation of the reform of the Judiciary.
Announces his support for the 40-hour work week. It is a topic that was on pause or stuck, among other things, due to the complexity of its implementation. It does not set a date and, between the lines, it shows that the change will be gradual. Not all sectors or branches of activity can move at the same speed. The experience in a country like Chile makes it clear that the process can take years, if we want to do it right.
Other commitments in labor matters have to do with the continuation of increases to recover the minimum wage and review the situation of application workers. They will have social security, Sheinbaum promises, although he did not set a deadline or define the characteristics of the benefits they would have.
In the energy transition we can see a message that points to a radical change: in 2030, Mexico will produce 45% of its electricity from renewable sources. I say radical change because I don’t want to use the word break. During AMLO’s six-year term there was a setback in terms of renewables, in form and substance. At the 2016 Paris COP, we said that by 2024 we would be producing 35% of energy with renewables. We are at 24%, but two years ago we were at 27 percent.
Assuming a commitment of 45% by 2030 means trying to recover everything that was lost between 2018 and 2024. Claudia Sheinbaum invites the private sector to participate and offers clear rules. His message points to a 180-degree turn in energy policy. He said it clearly and without stridency. Time will tell how many times she will need to repeat the message to obtain the results she is looking for and Mexico needs. To meet the goal, it is necessary to build capacity of around 30,000 megawatts. The cost of each 1,000 megawatts is approximately 1,000 million dollars.
Important changes are coming in the regulation of water use. Sheinbaum Pardo announces the review of concessions for the use and exploitation of water. It is a titanic task, but urgent. There are a little more than 525,000 concessions and in 97% of them there are no meters to know if the extraction limits defined in the concession are being respected.
Intervention in water concessions will have a gigantic impact on economic life. The agri-food sector is the main user, with more than 70% of the total, but there are other sectors that are not viable without water: housing construction and production of beverages, such as beer or soft drinks. Beyond the review of the concessions, legislators have announced that there will be a new General Water Law. The current one has been in force since the nineties and has been surpassed by circumstances.
There were many announcements made by the president on her first day and it is not the intention of this Safe to make an exhaustive review of them. To imagine the first 100 days, I want to review some of the commitments that are marked on the calendar.
In two weeks, the CEO Dialogue will come. An event that will be the opportunity to see what the message of the new Mexican government is to some of the main businessmen in North America. In 2026, the review of the USMCA will come and it will be necessary to cultivate the support of businessmen and women, because Trump and Harris are hardening their position. From now until then, we must strike a subtle balance between caring for sovereignty and meeting our commitments to our partners. We have issues that have reached their definition phase, such as the controversies over genetically modified corn and energy policy. In addition, we have issues that are becoming complicated, such as the expropriation of Vulcan.
In mid-November, the 2025 Economic Package must be approved. The Ministry of Finance is already working on it and faces the challenge of squaring the income and spending figures of the public sector. We will close 2024 with a deficit of 6% of GDP, which is 2 trillion pesos. By 2025, the differential between income and expenses should be considerably smaller.
How to cut 600, 700,000 million pesos from a budget that is the photograph of so many needs and commitments? Finding the answer to this riddle is one of the challenges of Claudia Sheinbaum’s first 100 days. The challenge is enormous in itself, but it has an additional complication: cutting the budget in a context of economic slowdown like the one we are experiencing can cool the economy and cause recession. A scenario that no president wants in his first year. Welcome, President Sheinbaum.
