The forecast variation for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was revised from 4.9% to 5.6%, a percentage that exceeds the ceiling of the inflation target, established at 5% by the National Monetary Council. The new forecast for Brazilian inflation in 2022 was released today (22) by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea).
The previous forecast was released by Ipea in December last year, in the Overview of the Letter of Conjuncture. According to IPEA, the review was motivated by factors that combine high current inflation, persistent commoditiesunregulated production chains and less favorable weather conditions for some agricultural crops at the beginning of the year.
In the case of the IPCA, in addition to a more comprehensive review of the prices of food at home and free goods, with forecasts that advanced from 4.5% and 3.7% to 6.1% and 5%, respectively, the estimated increase for regulated prices, it went from 5.4% to 6%.
In the case of free services and education, the estimates of 5.2% and 7.9% were maintained, considering that the conditions used for the previous projection remain in force, that is, moderate economic growth and gradual recovery of the work, which should prevent a stronger resumption of domestic demand, in the assessment of Ipea.
The variation projected for the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) was also revised upward by the IPEA Conjuncture Group: from 4.6% to 5.5%. Greater pressure from household food and industrial goods prices, with estimated rates of change that increased from 4.5% and 3.8% to 6.4% and 4.9%, respectively, contributed to this increase. In the case of regulated prices, there was an increase from 5.4% to 6.1%. Inflation rates for free services and education were maintained at 4.5% and 6.7%, respectively.
“The behavior of food and consumer goods prices should continue in the coming months, which is the main factor limiting a more intense deceleration of inflation in the year. In addition, the new acceleration in oil prices and the finding of a greater deficit in companies in the electricity sector signal more significant increases in energy tariffs and fuel prices, further limiting the disinflation process in 2022”, says Ipea. .
In the published analysis, the researchers clarify that additional inflationary risks are not ruled out. In the world economy, the worsening of tensions between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a sharper rise in commodities, especially oil and gas. “Furthermore, uncertainties in relation to Brazilian fiscal policy, which may intensify due to discussions inherent to the electoral process, may have a negative impact on the exchange rate,” says Ipea.
