The resilience of food producers will face a major challenge if sudden changes in climate, with a sequence of periods of intense heat and cold and the impact of drought, which facilitates the spread of fires, continue to affect the country. This is what economist Thiago de Oliveira, from the São Paulo Warehouse and Warehouse Company (Ceagesp), says when he warns that climate events could affect retail prices as early as 2024.
According to Oliveira, the pressure on consumer prices is having a greater impact on citrus fruits, such as oranges and lemons, which have dry and unstable weather conditions that can impact productivity and affect harvest times. These conditions can favor the spread of Citrus Canker or Greening, a bacterial disease transmitted by the psyllid insect. The disease is present in all producing regions of the state of São Paulo and has caused the eradication of more than 2 million trees this year.
“If there is no considerable improvement in humidity, there will be a considerable increase in costs. We are talking about mid-October, with an impact first on wholesale prices and shortly after on retail chains, already reaching the consumer”, explains the economist.
In the state, vegetables, both leafy and leguminous, may be impacted in December. These products have been in good supply in recent weeks, as the dry weather favors ripening and harvesting, but it is bad for the planting cycles and plant growth. These products, as well as citrus fruits, tend to increase in consumption during the warmer months.
Oliveira highlighted that the last year was marked by inconsistency, with what he called seasonal fluctuations. In short, both the cold and the heat did not come when expected or with the expected frequency, making it difficult for rural producers to plan. “Small producers lose more, because unlike large producers, they do not have more than one crop on the property. When the production module is small, there is no working capital or conditions for investment. This has not yet been reflected in debt, because producers are taking fewer risks and are no longer seeking capital to plant larger areas,” says Oliveira.
Perspective
The sales values of fruits and vegetables have been falling recently, according to both Ceagesp and the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese), which recorded a decline in the last two months in the costs of basic food basket products, especially tomatoes and potatoes.
The data that Ceagesp works with indicate a positive trend, with sufficient rainfall to ensure good production. Oliveira emphasizes that this may change and also depends on whether it will be distributed across all production areas and throughout the period, which has not occurred in recent weeks.
Fire
Since August, the state has been experiencing large firesfavored by dry weather. Until this Monday (16), five municipalities in São Paulo still had active fires. Despite being mild, the cloudiness and rain that have been hitting the state since Sunday (15), combined with a coordinated action involving 20 aircraft, contained most of the fires, which decreased by 88% in one week, according to a statement released by the Civil Defense Emergency Management Center of the state of SP (CGE) in an early afternoon. The agency reported that three municipalities remain with active fires: Itirapuã and Rifaina, in the Franca region, and Bananal, in the Serra da Bocaína region.
In all regions, the outlook is favorable for controlling and extinguishing fires, but Civil Defense continues to recommend precautions to avoid new fires and will keep teams on standby, monitoring the areas that were affected, especially in the northern region of the state, which did not receive rain.
