Passenger and freight rates will rise by more than 7% after the first diesel price increase

The Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (Fepc) has its time counted. Last weekend, the Ministry of Finance made the long-awaited decision to Raise the price of diesel fuel, despite the discontent of the freight and passenger transport sector, This after five years during which it was frozen and now It will have to rise gradually in three stages, until reaching the international parity price, which is approximately $15,000.

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And although most sectors of the economy have welcomed the decision, which will release significant fiscal pressure on the State’s finances, all industries agree that this determination will impact freight and bus ticket priceswhich in turn translates into an increase in the values ​​of these products and services.

It is worth remembering that the readjustment proposed by the Government of $6,000 corresponds to about 60% more than the current price and that, in addition, the fuel item It accounts for around 40% of the costs of the transport sector.

“This increase in the price of diesel fuel will not only directly impact the 4,000 richest people in the country, but will also impact the cost of living and the family basket of 50 million Colombians. In addition to the increase in fuel in the cost structure, all inputs will also rise and the assets of transporting families will be directly affected.”said the board of directors of the Colombian Truck Drivers Association.

In the case of impacts on cargo transportaccording to the data analytics firm Imetric, this decision to raise the Acpm by about $2,000 for this month will increase by an average of 7.83% the SiceTac, but warns that there could be an increase of up to 10% on certain routes.

Among his calculations, Juan Pablo Matiz, director of Imétrica, estimates that the route most affected by this increase will be Buenaventura – Cali, with a variation of 9.28%, followed by Buenaventura – Yumbo, with 9.25%Buenaventura – Buga, with 9.23%, Bucaramanga – Cúcuta, with 8.9% and Buenaventura – Medellín, with 8.64%.

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Likewise, among other routes that move the most cargo, the increase will be on the Buenaventura – Bogotá route, with 8.23%, Cúcuta – Barranquilla with 8.22% and Medellín – Barranquilla with 7.96%.

At the end of the $6,000 climb, The impact on the increase would be 23.5% and on some routes up to 30% (those less than 100 kilometers with a high composition of mountainous terrain), according to the data portal.

“Today we are seeing how due to the low or non-existent profitability of transport activity, added to the different factors that affect the productivity of the sector (blockades by dissatisfied communities, road closures due to natural disasters or damage to infrastructure and the growing wave of insecurity) and due to low cargo levels due to the reduction or stagnation in the sectors that demand the transport service “Like mining (-3.3%), industry (-1.6%), commerce (0.2%) and construction (2.4%), fewer vehicles are being dispatched,” said Nidia Hernández, president of Colfecar.

He also stressed that according to the same figures from the Ministry, approximately 11,000 fewer vehicles have been dispatched this year than in 2023 and the problem is expected to worsen in the coming months.

The bus fare has already become more expensive

On the other hand, in the case of passenger transport, the Association for the Comprehensive Development of Intermunicipal Land Transport (Aditt) estimates that at least, at this first moment, Bus tickets will increase in price by between 7% and 8%, and, once the total adjustment of the ACPM is made (close to $6,000 per gallon), the adjustment would be between 22% and 24%.

“If all the ordinary adjustments such as tolls, payrolls and additionally the price of diesel fuel are presented in January of the following year, failure to transfer this increase in operating costs to the tariff could put the sustainability of the sector at risk, the replacement of equipment and increase the credit risk of investors in the activity,” said José Yesid Rodríguez, executive director of Aditt.

He also assures that “These types of increases have a direct impact on the economic recovery of the country. From the private sector we are making a great effort to reactivate local tourism, and we know the realities of our country in which land transportation is the best option for thousands of Colombians who travel from remote places. For this reason, we will continue to meet the demand of passengers throughout the country as normal.”

He adds that the routes most affected by this increase in operating costs will be those that serve the users with lower purchasing power and from more remote regions with greater social vulnerability.

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Fleets.

Ministry of Transport

In addition to the economic impact that this may cause, the transport sectors have expressed other challenges that could affect their operations, including supply, security and informal transport.

“The sector today has to deal with the situation of roadblocks, the poor condition of the same and the problems of public order affecting productivity and travel times, which impacts on an increase of up to five times the administrative expense due to the apprentice fee, the electronic billing process, the increase of the main operating input which is the Diesel Fuel. This year we have already had two increases in the cost of tolls, we are really worried about the sustainability of the activity,” Rodriguez landed.

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Finally, both sectors again expressed their interest in reaching an agreement with the Government on the issue, since the viability of the transport industry would be at stake.

Paula Galeano Balaguera
Portfolio Journalist