‘From problem to solution’: How the falling birth rate can boost education

When the news broke in early August that more than 700 schools located in different parts of the country had closed their doors in recent months or were preparing to do so, reactions were not long in coming. Opinions of various kinds appeared around a reality that took countless parents by surprise.

(You may be interested in: The demographics of the Dane and the effects of population decline).

On the one hand, the voices of those who passed through the classrooms of such traditional institutions as Presentación Sans Façon in Bogotá, María Auxiliadora in Cali or Quinta del Puente near Bucaramanga were heard. Multitudes of memories ended up crowding together due to the teachings received, the friendships made and the anecdotes of teachers impossible to forget.

From the other side came explanations about a situation that is not exclusive to Colombia. In more than half of the countries in the world, The education system faces the challenge of having fewer and fewer students due to declining birth rates..

As has been said many times, the average number of children per woman has been falling on all five continents, to the point where an increasing number of nations are experiencing population declines. Fewer young people and more old people are part of both the present and the foreseeable future of humanity.

That this trend began some time ago in our case is supported by the figures. It is enough to look at the data from the Ministry of Education to see that there is a significant decrease in the number of children and young people enrolled, both in public and private education.

(See: In 10 years, the average number of births in Colombia has fallen by more than 30%).

Soafter reaching a peak of 11.2 million in 2009, the slope changed directionTen years later, there were one million fewer students and by 2023 the figure dropped to 9.8 million.

Such a contraction would have been much more significant had it not been for Venezuelan migration, which began to be massive since 2017. According to the authorities’ records, students from the neighboring country went from just over 200,000 in 2019 to 622,503 last year.

The above indicates that when only those from Colombia are considered, the number is less than 9.2 million. Put another way, In less than 15 years there was a drop of two million national students, which has become more pronounced in recent times..

In a nosedive

And everything points to a real decline if what has been observed after the pandemic is consolidated. A recent publication by the Bank of the Republic highlights the sharp drop in births, which is unprecedented in our history.

It is enough to remember that, compared to the previous year, in 2022 there was a 7 percent decrease in the arrival of babies, followed by an 11 percent decrease in 2023. In turn, in the first four months of 2024 there was a further 15 percent decrease, with 145,416 live births recorded.

This rate makes it likely that by next December the cumulative number will not exceed 450,000 births, a number that no one imagined until very recently. For example, in its most recent projection exercise, DANE speaks of 710,131 for 2024.

Whatever the final balance, the central message is that the size of the pre-school and school-age population will continue to decline sharply in Colombia unless the decline observed in this decade is reversed. In this regard, it is worth noting that the experience of other countries shows that societies that decide to have few children do not turn around, even in those places where the State adopts explicit policies to encourage the formation of large families.

(Also: ‘The demographic crisis, one more’: effects of the birth rate implosion on the economy).

Other factors, such as migration, may deepen this decline. In fact, the Emisor maintains that when looking at the statistics on births and deaths, together with the net departures of Colombians recorded by immigration authorities, it is feasible that the size of the resident population in the country has been falling since 2022. As part of those who leave are under 18 years old, this also affects the occupation of desks..

But while different hypotheses are being validated, it is appropriate to assume that the future will come sooner. To cite a specific case, the Dane calculation –still valid until the entity revises it– is that by 2037 the number of young people between 3 and 16 years old will fall by 1.5 million compared to the 11 million that the current figures indicate.

However, there are those who think that, in light of what has been observed, this could happen in this decade. This is why the tone of those who ask the entity to look at the matter again is increasing, among other things because if the population figures are out of date it will seem that there is not enough educational coverage, even if on the ground it is seen that the potential demand is being met. And as for the number of schools, it is foreseeable that more closures will come. In some cases the reason will be the lack of students and in others the quality, while in others the reason will be the merger of smaller units from which larger institutions will emerge..

That said, it is worth noting that the informal sector is maintaining its levels, as it actually showed an increase in 2023, up to 1.96 million enrolled students. Since 2010, the reductions have been concentrated in the public system, where four out of five students are enrolled.

Rural education

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How to react

It is unquestionable that the demographic change that Colombia is experiencing is already an enormous challenge, even if few pay attention to it. Key areas of public policy such as health or pensions will be much more difficult to finance if the proportion of people of working age decreases and the number of adults who will require care and attention increases.

However, in terms of education, a series of opportunities are emerging that would allow us to overcome current shortcomings, both in terms of coverage and quality. This implies doing things differently and breaking with the inertia of a scheme that requires adapting to changing circumstances.

Those who know about the matter argue that space should be opened for the creation of preschool grades (pre-kindergarten and kindergarten) in the official segment. Doing so would not only fill a gap at a key stage in the development of cognitive skills, but would also focus the work of the Family Welfare Institute on improving the care offered to children between zero and 3 years of age..

No less important would be the possibility of bridging the gaps between urban and rural areas. Despite the efforts made so far, the truth is that a child who attends a school located in a remote village learns less than one who is enrolled in a city or town, because he or she has fewer tools and it is difficult to attract the best teachers to remote places.

Leveling up in the early years deserves to be complemented by an expansion of the coverage of secondary education in the countryside, so that more young people can enter higher education, whether technical or university. In this regard, technology serves to shorten distances and opens the possibility of personalizing learning.

There would also be room to improve the infrastructure that requires attention, which includes dignifying entire populations. Combating school dropouts more effectively or universalizing school meals, which is a fundamental tool in the fight against malnutrition, would end up being an achievable goal.

Another important element is the extension of the single working day to many more young people, since today the “double shift” of five hours is still the most common in public schools. Although from the point of view of efficiency in the use of facilities and limited resources this sounds reasonable, in practice the current system leaves too much free time, which exposes parents and students to various kinds of pressures.

A specific case is Bogotá, where the number of students enrolled has dropped by almost 200,000 since 2019. For Isabel Segovia, the District’s Secretary of Education, the capital has enough places and could use the space that opens up to extend the single-day school day that currently covers 22 percent of students. With some 60,000 births per year – much lower than the 100,000 predicted by Dane at the time – everything points to smaller classes and greater room for maneuver.

Extending learning hours or launching educational and cultural activities would result in advances in intellectual and social abilities. This would allow the productivity of the economy to increase, due to the training of human talent that, for example, could be prepared to work in new industries, thanks to higher skills..

However, it is important to remember that there are two sides to the coin, as the dangers of a declining school population cannot be ignored. In the midst of fiscal constraints, there will be no shortage of those who propose cuts to allocate them to other priorities or to reduce the deficit of public finances.

No less serious would be doing more of the same, without seeking to level the playing field. In addition, we must avoid the temptation to spend poorly or expand infrastructure based on erroneous demographic calculations and multiply the so-called white elephants.

The training and retraining of teachers deserves special mention. If projections show that there will be fewer children in primary school and fewer young people in secondary school, more teachers should be responsible for the pre-school and vocational part.

In this respect, it is to be hoped that Fecode will not become a stumbling block, apart from the fact that it is the most powerful union in the country. Reluctant to carry out evaluations, the teachers’ union is obliged to do its part in the search for solutions.

A good dose of leadership from the highest levels of government is indispensable. On this subject, it is fair to note that several of the objectives mentioned are included in the development plan of the Petro administration.

As usual, The challenge is proper execution, aimed at ensuring good results in the medium and long term. As with so many other fronts, we must listen to the professionals, heed the voice of experience and recognize that the old formulas deserve to be adjusted.

Ideally, the path to be taken should be free from political pressure and independent of electoral considerations. After all, the duration of school life is much longer than that of any period of government.

Because of this, it is worth understanding the magnitude of what is coming. For the expert Luis Piñeros, linked to the Ministry of Education, “The country is on the verge of achieving universal coverage at the basic and secondary preschool levels (up to 16 years old), for the first time in its history, due to population behavior and the release of teachers from other levels”Here, the drop in students in primary and secondary school would constitute the main opportunity to increase access to educational care for 3 and 4 year old children.

Adds that “The behavior of enrollment would lead to the stabilization of staff, which could mean having additional resources for teacher training and the provision of texts and educational materials, apart from the strengthening of comprehensive training, expressed in sports, art and culture.”. Focusing on quality involves taking into account “that the proposals for reform of the financing system for preschool, primary and secondary education aim to increase the resources invested”he says.

Such a promise is ample justification for the country to do well in the task ahead. If Colombia aspires to build a better society, there is no room for slacking in this area.

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